SDG Push Insight Report

Burundi

Burundi
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Integrated SDG Insights

Burundi

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment — This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.‍

SDG Trends & Priorities — This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.
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SDG Interlinkages — Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.
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‍Finance & Stimulus — These policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

Burundi’s pace of economic growth during the cycle 2023-2025 is in acceleration, characterized by being 70% higher, on average, than the global rate of growth, and well above the country’s growth trajectory projected before the pandemic. Accordingly, Burundi’s commitments to achieving the SDGs are focused on promoting the development of rural communities and the structural transformation of its economy.

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Despite the generally positive impact of this pace of growth on extreme poverty reduction (at $2.15 a day), there are still significant challenges to accelerate the pace of progress from the high prevailing levels. Moreover, the accelerated economic expansion comes at the expense of the environment as the country’s carbon emissions intensity of GDP is expected to increase at an annual rate of 28% due to fossil fuel usage —and of 3.3% when also considering land-use change.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

8.5: Full employment and decent work with equal pay

Burundi an ambition to have “every adult has access to a decent job”, by 2040, is constrained by the current decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per person employed – and challenges pathways to create growth in decent jobs. In addition, the proportion of people living below 50 percent of median income has risen, reflecting an increase in income inequality (target 10.2).

However, there are opportunities for jobs in expansion of renewable energy consumption (target 7.2) towards a green transition, and in combination with technology access towards a digital transition  (target 17.7).  These are opportunities to drive job creation when combined with skills transfer and upskilling (target 8.2).

Currently, agriculture provides 84% of the jobs, which are characterized by wages. Burundi has also established local employment observatories, and this will signal where jobs are belong creating.

9.2: Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization

Despite the goal of developing the industrial sector and its competitiveness, the share of manufacturing as a share of Gross Domestic Product has continued to decline, estimated at 9% according to the World Bank. Burundi's ambition to elevate this share to 25% of GDP in 2040 requires significant acceleration.

Leveraging its strong foundations in agriculture, advancing integrated policy choices that emphasize rural infrastructure and foster value addition (target 9.4), together with energy access (target 7.1) and increased access to connectivity (target 17.7), can accelerate progress in this critical element of Burundi's industrialization agenda.

The East African Community market provides further opportunity to define and shape value addition efforts for Burundi.

11.2: Affordable and sustainable transport systems

One of the major constraints noted for the structural transformation of Burundi’s economy is the lack of transport infrastructure. Road transport remains the dominant mode of inland transport of goods and people. Burundi has ferry services on Lake Tanganyika, connecting to Tanzania.

Connection to other countries in the East Africa Community is relatively developed. Inland road transport comprises about 14,480 kilometres of which only about 7% all whether. This makes transport for people and goods difficult, which then undercuts the ambition of value addition.

Given the fiscal constraints, the key to improving road transport is to improve its governance, and mobilize citizen participation. Mobilizing financing for roads, either through climate funds or other infrastructure vehicles needs to be explored.

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)
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Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Burundi's gross government debt, projected at 69.5% of GDP in 2023, is 21.1 percentage points (pp) above the low-income developing countries (LIDC) group average of 48.3%. The country is projected to collect 30.2% of GDP in revenue this year, which is more than double the LIDC group ratio of 14.9%.

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Burundi's public external debt servicing this year is projected to be 6.3% of revenue, which is less than half the LIDC average of 14.1%. Due to Burundi’s susceptibility to shocks to its exports and exchange rates, the latest World Bank and IMF DSA from July 2022 rates the country as at ‘high risk of debt distress’. Burundi is using an Integrated National Financing Framework (INFF) to address key fiscal and financial constraints and to build a more sustainable financial architecture at the national level. Priority actions include setting up a green tax framework (green taxes and tax expenditure for green investments); identifying opportunities for debt-for-nature swap frameworks; enhancing guarantee funds for loans to the agricultural sector and micro-projects; and promoting the development of microfinance institutions.

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Burundi

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

  • Debt for SDGs
  • Climate finance
  • Blended and public-private finance
  • SDG-aligned business environment and investment
  • Remittances, philanthropy and faith-based financing

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).