SDG Push Insight Report

Viet Nam

Viet Nam
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Integrated SDG Insights

Viet Nam

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment — This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.‍

SDG Trends & Priorities — This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.
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SDG Interlinkages — Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.
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‍Finance & Stimulus — These policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

Viet Nam’s economic growth cycle in 2023-2025 is in acceleration, with growth rates projected to be more than twice the global forecast and aligning to the country’s growth trajectory projected before the pandemic. This pace of growth is expected to exert a positive effect on reducing the incidence of poverty by most thresholds and dimensions – currently, 9.35% of the country’s population are shown to be vulnerable to multidimensional poverty (MDP).

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However, such economic expansion would be increasingly dependent on carbon emissions as the country’s carbon emissions intensity of GDP is expected to increase at an annual rate of 10% due to fossil fuel usage, and of 6% when also considering land-use change. Floods, drought, changing weather patterns and increased incidence of extreme weather events will affect livelihoods and increase vulnerability to poverty, especially in the Mekong River Delta region. Therefore, boosting investments in people, technology and infrastructure will be crucial to building resilience and achieving Viet Nam’s ambitious goal of reaching high-income status by 2045. 

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

1.5: Build resilience to environmental, economic and social disasters

  • Viet Nam has made historic progress in reducing the incidence of poverty since the early 1990s. Still prevalent in 1992, extreme poverty was virtually eliminated by 2020.
  • Changing weather patterns, drought, floods and an increased incidence of extreme weather events will sharply increase the number of people vulnerable to poverty in the country.
  • Migration from the Mekong River Delta—the region with the largest number of people vulnerable to poverty—is expected to increase due to a sea level rise and its associated effects.
  • Migration will increase pressure on essential services, housing and infrastructure in major cities, particularly in the densely populated southeast.
  • Investing in building resilience for the poor against climate change will reinforce its positive impact on all other SDGs as it will reduce vulnerability and prepare the poor for shocks and disasters. Indirectly, this means better access to productive employment, affordable energy and the ability of leverage climate actions. The benefits outweigh the trade-offs.

5.5: Ensure full participation in leadership and decision-making

  • Vietnamese women are economically active, routinely posting some of the highest female labour force participation rates in the world.
  • Yet the number of women in leadership positions in the public and private sectors is still low. For example, there are only two female ministers at the national level and only 6 of 63 provincial governments are led by women.
  • Women’s priorities in economic policy, health, education, social protection and sustainability would be better reflected in public life if leadership was more diverse.
  • The legal and regulatory framework for gender equality has not advanced in recent years, reflecting the absence of women in leadership roles.
  • Investments in this indicator could lead to benefits across many SDGs, including poverty reduction, hunger alleviation and economic growth.

7.1: Universal access to modern energy

  • Viet Nam’s economic success is closely associated with the rapid growth of manufactured exports, which have created millions of jobs directly and indirectly.
  • As a result, Viet Nam’s GDP growth is the most energy intensive in Southeast Asia.
  • To sustain growth, Viet Nam must achieve a rapid and equitable transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources. Coal and gas still acounted for 52% of power production in 2022.
  • With demand for energy increasing at exponential rates, a rapid transition to renewable sources could prove disruptive, especially if the cost of modern energy rises precipitously, or supply is interrupted to rural and remote areas.
  • Regional inequalities could also emerge as access to hydro, wind and solar power is geographically concentrated.
  • This target is in line with the government’s commitment to net zero emissions, and to ensure an equitable energy transition for all. The Just Energy Transition Partnership illustrates the government’s initial steps to meet the net zero commitment.

9.5: Enhance research and upgrade industrial technologies

  • The share of manufacturing in GDP has risen from 15% in 1995 to 25% in 2023. Industrial development has created steady jobs and lifted millions out of poverty.
  • However, Viet Nam’s manufactured exports are the most import-intensive in the region, heavily concentrated in assembly operations in electronics, footwear and garments.
  • To sustain growth and avoid the middle-income trap Viet Nam needs to develop technological capacity and stimulate innovation in domestic industries.
  • Stronger linkages are needed between industry and universities, and between international and national research institutions.
  • Upgrading universities would stimulate inward investment in research and development activities. Necessary to ensure participation of women in technological upskilling.

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)
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Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Viet Nam's gross government debt is projected at 36.3% of GDP in 2023. The country is expected to collect 18.2% of GDP in revenue this year, with natural resources accounting for 2.4% of said revenue.1 The country's external debt servicing relative to revenue is expected to reach 6.4% this year, and its credit rating is in the ‘non-investment grade speculative’ category. As of 8 June 2023, the country’s 10-year bond yield was trading at 3.2%.

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Viet Nam aims to develop more effective fiscal policy instruments, ensuring a countercyclical fiscal policy, including revenue growth (property taxes, capital gains taxes, carbon taxes). Investing and modernizing social protection systems, including universal child benefits and social pensions, to reduce inequality and ensure social resilience in the face of economic and health shocks, climate change and climate disasters. Challenges include ensuring less on foreign direct assistance and developing larger, export-oriented firms. Rationalization of public investment procedures and closer linkages to industrial and trade policy can help with these challenges, including developing domestic capital markets to increase supply of long-term domestic finance for productive investments. On the demand side, Viet Nam’s private sector needs to to develop larger firms with more complex financing requirements to boost demand for the development of domestic capital markets. On the supply side, the financial sector needs to accelerate bank consolidation and create new mechanisms to increase the supply of long-term, VND-denominated finance, ensuring state supervision and boosting the demand for a credit rating.

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Viet Nam

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

  • Tax and revenue reform, including capital gains and property taxes
  • Development of domestic financial markets, especially secondary markets, through strict disclosure rules and increased transparency
  • Climate finance, including the creation of public-private climate banks with international backing
  • Blended and public-private finance

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).