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Integrated SDG Insights

Equatorial Guinea

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.

SDG Trends & Priorities This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.

SDG Interlinkages Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.

Finance & StimulusThese policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

Equatorial Guinea’s economy is projected to remain trapped in a cycle of contraction, which would have occurred even in the absence of the pandemic and subsequent crises, and it is expected to worsen in the next couple of years: the annual rate of contraction will increase from -1.8% in 2023 to more than -8% during 2024-2025. Accordingly, Equatorial Guinea’s commitment to achieving the SDGs is focused on forging a path towards prosperity, progress and peace.​

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Furthermore, the country’s efforts to boost economic activity occur at the expense of the environment, as Equatorial Guinea’s carbon emissions intensity of GDP is expected to increase at an annual rate of 8% due to both fossil fuel usage and land-use change.​

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

8.5: Full employment and decent work with equal pay

Equatorial Guinea’s prioritization of the creation of decent work for all is intended to address several key challenges facing the economy: reducing unemployment (SDG 8), reducing poverty (SDG 1) and improving people's living conditions (SDG 11) - particularly in urban areas. The government's ambition to promote access to productive, decent and sustainable employment for all men and women is reflected in the Agenda Equatorial Guinea 2035. In addition, the government has committed to diversify the economy and is prioritizing the Blue Economy, services, digitalization and innovation, sustainable tourism and culture, and human capital, including health and education.

Deepening investment in creation of more productive work directly serves as a multiplier for progress in women's empowerment (target 5.5), youth empowerment (target 4.4). When advanced with integrated policy planning, it build resilience to shocks and disasters, particularly for vulnerable groups. Decent job creation also has positive impact on technology and innovation, areas that are critical and require advancement in Equatorial Guinea's priorities around expanded health coverage and attaining affordable energy and water sanitation.  

9.2: Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization

Over recent years, Equatorial Guinea’s economic growth has been hampered by a shrinking hydrocarbon sector and external and domestic shocks. The economy has been in recession for seven consecutive years. The hydrocarbon sector has declined at an average rate of 7.2 percent per year between 2015 and 2021 amid maturing oil fields and multiple incidents at both gas and oil production sites. Considering the secular decline in hydrocarbon production, policy priorities include changing the current development model to promote economic diversification.

Agenda Equatorial Guinea 2035 sets the commitment for the diversification of the economy by integrating the country into new global value chains. The government is prioritizing the Blue Economy, services, digitalization and innovation, sustainable tourism and culture, and human capital, including health and education. Equatorial Guinea is also seeking to extend incentives to the maritime sector to make it profitable (e.g., ports, tourism, energy, shipping, boat repair).

Acknowledging the increasing importance of services in supporting countries’ diversification efforts, it would be beneficial for Equatorial Guinea to develop new “deep trade agreements" (with respect to the African Continental Free Trade Area and the Economic Community of West African States), including in the broad category of services and digital services (e.g., eservices, ecommerce). Such trade policies involving services could lead to higher labour, overall positive productivity multiplier effects on 7 SDGs (SDGs 1,2 ,6, 7, 8, 11 and 12). Policy design and implementation needs to be cognizant of potential negative impact across water and climate goals. Equatorial Guinea's development priorities include goal 16, which could support the legislative and regulatory foundation for effective safeguards.

11.2: Affordable and sustainable transport systems​

The development of infrastructure and its intersection with urbanization remains one of the main levers of Equatorial Guinea's  development progress across other SDGs. The availability and quality of infrastructure, as part of an integrated package of policy choices, can contribute to improving living standards and accelerate Equitorial Guinea's  development process. The equitable distribution of infrastructure across the country will help to reduce spatial inequalities and promote opportunities, particularly for vulnerable groups.

Between now and 2035, the government's ambition (as outlined Agenda Equitorial Guinea 2035)  is to amplify the effects of structural and social transformation by revitalizing the transport services, the sustainable mobility of people and goods; by promoting internal and intra-regional trade and intra-regional trade; and by consolidating the foundations for strong growth and for sustainable development.

Investing in effective low-cost public transportation makes cities more inclusive, safe and sustainable. Effective and low-cost public transportation reduces urban poverty and inequalities and enhances inclusive growth through access to jobs, health care, education services and other public goods when adequately supported by environmental and social safeguards that protect small scale farmers and support a sustainable transition to renewable energy sources (target 7.2)

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Equatorial Guinea's gross government debt, projected at 26.4% of GDP in 2023, is 42.4 percentage points (pp) below the emerging market and middle-income economies (EMMIE) group’s figure of 68.8%.

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The country is expected to collect 15.6% of GDP in revenue this year, which is more than 10 pp below the EMMIE average of 26%. Natural resources account for close to three-fourths of Equatorial Guinea’s revenue, which is more than four times the EMMIE average.

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Equatorial Guinea

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

  • Tax and revenue reform​
  • Climate finance​
  • Blended and public-private finance​
  • SDG-aligned business environment and investment​
  • Impact investments​
  • Accessing financial markets and insurance

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).