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Integrated SDG Insights

Madagascar

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.

SDG Trends & Priorities This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.

SDG Interlinkages Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.

Finance & StimulusThese policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

The Malagasy economy is going through a period of stagnation, but according to forecasts, it will be in a recovery phase over the period 2024-2025. This growth rate is characterized by an average 50% higher growth rate than the rest of the world.

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This pace of economic growth would not have a rapid impact on reducing the poverty rate and accelerating progress towards the SDGs in the short term. Therefore, the country's commitment to achieving the SDGs should focus on reducing extreme poverty. Moreover, this recovery in economic growth would be based on the use of fossil fuels to the detriment of the environment: the intensity of carbon emissions relative to GDP should increase at an annual rate of 10.5%. In addition, Madagascar faces significant challenges related to climate change. The country is among the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, with an expected increase in extreme weather events, such as cyclones and droughts. In addition, about 80% of the Malagasy population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods, making rural communities particularly sensitive to climatic variations.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

7.2: By 2030, significantly increase the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix

The planet is over-heating and global warming is a reality. It is human activity that is responsible for this fact and energy is the main cause, whether it is to produce, transport or consume it. The energy transition is now necessary to limit global warming and its devastating effects on ecosystems and the climate as much as possible. Madagascar aims to significantly increase the share of renewable energies in the global energy mix. This goal is in line with the country's vision for energy sustainability. 

However, the current reality is that most of the energy supply is still based on non-renewable sources. Currently, only 15% of energy production comes from renewable sources, highlighting the considerable way to go to reach this challenging goal. To achieve this, Madagascar both need to invest in the development of renewable energies, such as solar and wind energy, and to put in place policies and infrastructure conducive to the adoption of these technologies. The establishment of regular monitoring mechanisms to measure progress towards this target will be essential. 

Many countries have already adopted such mechanisms to monitor the transition to renewable energy and to draw valuable lessons from it. In line with the country's vision for energy sustainability, Madagascar is seeking to increase the share of renewable energy in its energy sources. Major renewable energy projects from wind, solar and hydropower are underway. However, to accelerate progress, achieving them will require sufficient financial support.

8.2: Achieve high levels of economic productivity through diversification, technological upgrading and innovation, including a focus on high value-added and labour-intensive sectors

In Madagascar, economic growth has been supported by the extractive industry sector since 2012. But this support gradually declined and became negative in 2016 following the fall in the price of nickel and the gradual withdrawal of oil companies. This trend has been reversing since 2017. Madagascar has set itself the goal of achieving a high level of economic productivity through diversification, technological modernization and innovation by 2030. This ambitious vision aligns with the country's aspirations to create a more dynamic and diversified economy. However, the current reality contrasts with these ambitions. Currently, the underground economy is growing significantly, which can limit overall productivity. The share of high value-added sectors in GDP remains relatively low.

To achieve this target, the government will need to invest in technological upgrading and innovation, particularly in structural transformation with high value-added potential. This will require a policy and regulatory framework conducive to the adoption of new technologies and the promotion of innovation. In addition, encouraging training and skills development to meet the needs of high value-added sectors will be crucial to improving economic productivity.

13.2: Incorporate climate change actions into national policies, strategies and planning

Madagascar is ranked the third country most vulnerable to climate change in the world. Deforestation and the destruction of natural ecosystems are among the greatest factors of climate vulnerability, through the loss of ecosystem services. The average annual deforestation rate was 1.5% in 2019. Land degradation affects 12 of Madagascar's 23 regions, with an area of 70,000 km2 requiring immediate action in 2024.

Madagascar aims to integrate climate change measures into its policies, strategies and national planning by 2030. This vision reflects the recognition of the urgency of addressing the effects of climate change and promoting climate resilience at all levels of governance. However, the current situation highlights the need to accelerate these efforts. Madagascar is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, with phenomena such as cyclones and droughts becoming more frequent and intense. Recent statistics indicate an increase in climate disruptions affecting key sectors such as agriculture and infrastructure.

To meet this target, Madagascar will need to integrate climate considerations into all stages of decision-making, from national policies to local planning. This will require cross-sectoral coordination and strong partnerships to develop coherent and effective climate policies.

16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions at all levels

In 2022, according to the Corruption Perceptions Index, Madagascar was ranked 142nd out of 180 countries with a score of 26/100. According to the Rule of Law Index, the country is ranked 112th out of 139 countries. In addition, only 39.7% of the Malagasy population say they are satisfied with the public services received. The reduction of extreme poverty should be strengthened by improving governance, strengthening institutions, the rule of law, public accountability and the fight against corruption.  

This would offer Madagascar the opportunity to grow its economy with a greater focus on structural transformation, resilience and emerging decentralization. In connection with the latter, the government is currently strengthening the implementation of decentralization, in accordance with the Letter of the Emerging Decentralization Policy following the promulgation of Law No. 2021-011 of 24 June 2021.

However, it is crucial to ensure that this goal is supported by four complementary pathways to accelerate development: (i) enhance economic opportunities; (ii) improve service delivery; (iii) build resilience; and (iv) strengthen governance, with the latter being a precondition for progress on other fronts to achieve the SDGs.

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Madagascar's gross government debt is projected at 53.1% of GDP in 2023, which is 4.8 percentage points (pp) above the low-income developing countries (LIDC) average of 48.3%. The country is projected to collect 14.6% of GDP in revenue this year, thus nearly the LIDC average of 14.9%.

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Madagascar’s public external debt servicing this year is projected to reach 17.6% of revenue, which is 3.5 pp above the LIDC average of 14.1%. Due to potential liquidity pressures and the risk of a rising debt servicing burden in case of an export shock, the latest World Bank and IMF DSA from March 2023 rated the country as at ‘moderate risk of debt distress’.

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Madagascar

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

  • Tax and revenue reform
  • Debt for SDGs
  • Climate finance
  • Blended and public-private finance
  • SDG-aligned business environment and investment
  • Accessing financial markets and insurance
  • Remittances, philanthropy and faith-based financing

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).