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Integrated SDG Insights

Tanzania

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.

SDG Trends & Priorities This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.

SDG Interlinkages Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.

Finance & StimulusThese policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

Tanzania’s economic growth cycle in 2023-2025 is in acceleration, with growth rates projected to be twice the global figure and converging to the country’s growth trajectory projected before the pandemic.

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This pace of growth is expected to exert a positive effect on reducing poverty at $2.15 and $3.65 a day, though there are still significant distributional challenges to accelerate the pace of progress from the high prevailing levels. Hence, the country’s commitments to achieving the SDGs should focus on an integrated approach to achieve poverty reduction by promoting inclusive growth, by creating opportunities for as many poor people as possible and by targeting the ultra-poor. On the other hand, this economic growth cycle comes at the expense of the environment as the country’s carbon emissions intensity of GDP is expected to increase at an annual rate of 6% due to fossil fuel usage.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

5.4: Value unpaid care and promote shared domestic responsibilities

The gender gap in agricultural productivity is estimated at 20-30% and women entrepreneurs’ revenues are 46% less than those of male entrepreneurs in Tanzania. Women wage workers are more likely than men to make less money or not be paid for their work, women are the most land insecure and politics continues to be masculinized. While the country has moved towards gender equality at lower levels of education, there are still significant gender gaps at the upper secondary level. Gender inequality increases women’s  lack of agency at home, and thus increases their vulnerability to gender-based violence. An estimated 40% of all women aged 15-49 years have experienced physical violence, while 17% have experienced sexual violence.  About 58% of women and 40% of men believe that a husband is justified in beating his wife under certain circumstances.

To address this, it is essential to prioritize policies that focus on overcoming gender gaps, on giving women access to human capital, economic opportunities, ownership and control of assets and that promote women’s voice and agency. Tanzania's National Five-Year Development Plan (2021/2022-2025/2026), and the Tanzania Development Vision 2025 emphasize the need for integrated approaches to promote gender equality and to create greater opportunities, especially for young people.

Furthermore, a robust social protection programme (targeting women) and leveraging the potential of the digital can empower women by enabling them to succeed in the future of work, to access essential digital services, including those for education and health care, and to increase their civic and political engagement.

8.5: Full employment and decent work with equal pay

With a national unemployment rate in the United Republic of Tanzania of approximately 9.3% (9.0% in Tanzania Mainland and 19.7% in Zanzibar); youth unemployment reaching 14.7% (Tanzania Mainland) and 33.6% (Zanzibar); female unemployment (12.7) higher than males (5.8%) in 2021; and unemployment by disability at 7.2% males, 6.0 females –  it is crucial to give special attention to gender, youth and people with disabilities when addressing the issue of decent work for all.  

Investing in SDG 8 (decent work and economic growth) can help the United Republic of Tanzania to address current employment challenges  and to focus on key priority areas, such as poverty eradication, zero hunger, improved health care and education.

Progress on Target 8.5 (By 2030 achieve full and productive employment) should be supported by policies that reduce energy intensity and increase its efficiency  to mitigate the negative impact on the share of renewable energy (Target 7.2) and by energy efficiency (Target 7.3).

9.2: Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization

SDG 9.2 aims to foster inclusive and sustainable industrialization in Tanzania while simultaneously enhancing its economic growth. Despite recent improvements, manufacturing value added as a proportion of GDP and per capita remains relatively low and declining in Tanzania (around 8.3 % in 2021).

However, the pursuit of industrialization also entails trade-offs. It requires careful consideration of environmental sustainability, as industrial activities can have adverse ecological impacts—affecting ecosystems (15, 2), potable water (6), life below water (14) and life on land (15).  Rapid industrialization could put pressure on energy access (7.2) at the expense of energy sustainability (7.2, 7.3). Ensuring inclusivity in this process is crucial to prevent potential social, gender and territorial inequalities (10, 5).

By investing in SDG 9.2 (Industry, Infrastructure and Innovation), Tanzania can improve on current employment challenges and focus on key priorities around the eradication of poverty, reducing inequality, improving the business environment and local entrepreneurship. This is complemented with continued state promotion of innovative start-ups in various sectors, such as fintech, agrotech and health tech, which will increase the economy’s ability to absorb the ever-increasing youth population into the workforce.

16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions

In Tanzania approximately 54.7% of the population expresses satisfaction with the public services they receive. By focusing on SDG 16 (Peace, justice and strong institutions), and specifically on Target 16.6, measures can be implemented to cut across all goals and pillars outlined in the National Five-Year Development Plan 2021/2022- 2025/2026 where public services are provided.

This offers Tanzania the opportunity to set a more ambitious goal, for example to increase the percentage of the population satisfied with the public services received. This increase will have a positive multiplier effect on the progress of other SDGs.

However, it is crucial to ensure that this aim is accompanied by safeguards to prevent the deepening of poverty and of inequalities.

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Tanzania's gross government debt, projected at 40.1% of GDP in 2023, is 8.2 percentage points below the low-income developing countries (LIDC) group average. The country is projected to collect 15.3% of GDP in revenue this year, which is close to the LIDC group ratio of 14.9%. Tanzania’s external debt servicing relative to revenue is projected to be 11.8% this year compared to 14.1% for the average LIDC country. According to the country’s latest DSA (published in April 2023) the country is rated at ‘moderate risk of debt distress’.

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Tanzania is using an Integrated National Financing Framework (INFF) to address key fiscal and financial constraints and to build a more sustainable financial architecture at the national level. Priority actions include strengthening the collection of various taxes, such as income tax, import duties, excise duties and VAT using computerized systems; broadening the geographical distribution of the tax base and diversifying sector contributions, including strengthening the taxation of landed property; developing the capacity to monitor tax evasion avenues, such as transfer pricing and invoice mispricing; facilitating the establishment of a special purpose vehicle at national and local levels to manage business investment and ventures; building institutional capacity in preparing bankable projects, negotiation skills and contract management for external public borrowing; channeling commercial public borrowing to strategic, high-impact projects that ensure technology transfer to Tanzania; strengthening the environment to make it conducive to private guarantee schemes and institutions so as to facilitate micro, small and medium enterprises’ access to loans; and establishing and strengthening the public-private partnerships facilitation fund to cater to project development, to capacity development and to the viability gap fund.

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Tanzania

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

  • Tax for the SDGs
  • Debt for SDGs (Sustainable Bond Issuance Framework for Tanzania Mainland and Zanzibar)
  • Climate finance (such as BIOFIN, Green and Blue Bonds)
  • Blended and public-private finance
  • SDG-aligned business environment and investment (SDG Investor Map for Mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar)
  • Accessing financial markets and insurance

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).