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Integrated SDG Insights

Malawi

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.

SDG Trends & Priorities This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.

SDG Interlinkages Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.

Finance & StimulusThese policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

Malawi’s economy is in mitigation mode in 2023-2024 but is projected to accelerate by 2025. While this pace of economic growth is expected to surpass the global figure, it is still well below the country’s growth trajectory projected before the pandemic.

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This pace of growth is not expected to have a noticeable impact on extreme poverty reduction at $2.15 a day — leaving critical distributional challenges that need to be addressed to accelerate the rate of progress in the short-term. Hence the country’s commitment to achieving the SDGs should focus on mitigating the effects of the downturn on the most vulnerable households and on reducing extreme poverty. On the other hand, this economic growth cycle comes at the expense of the environment as the country’s carbon emissions intensity of GDP is expected to increase at an annual rate of 1% due to fossil fuel usage.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

5.4: Value unpaid care and promote shared domestic responsibilities ​

In Malawi, women experience lower human endowments, economic opportunity, voice and agency than men.  Gender inequality  increases women’s  lack of agency at home, and thus increases their vulnerability to gender-based violence.  An estimated  24.3% of all women aged 15-49 years have experienced physical violence in the last 12 months, while 16.3% of women  believe that a husband is justified in beating his wife under certain circumstances

To address this, it is essential to focus on policies that prioritize addressing gender gaps in policy combinations and address human capital, economic opportunities, ownership and control of assets and that promote women’s voice and agency. The Multiannual Indicative Programme-1 2021-2030 emphasizes the need for integrated approaches to promote gender equality and to create greater opportunities, especially for women and youth. 

Furthermore, a robust social protection programme (targeting women) that leverages the potential of digital technology can empower women by enabling them to succeed in the future of work, to access essential digital services, including those for education and health care, and to increase their civic and political engagement.  

8.5: Full employment and decent work with equal pay ​

With a  national unemployment rate in Malawi of approximately 18.5% in 2018  (higher among females than males, at 20.3% and 16.6%, respectively), and youth (aged 15-24 years) not in education, employment, or training at 29.6%  in 2020, it is crucial to give special attention to women, youth and people with disabilities when addressing the issue of decent work for all.​​

As the country’s economic activity mostly takes place in the agricultural sector, it continues to be highly vulnerable to economic and climate shocks due to weak or no protection systems.

By focusing on Target 8.5, the Government of Malawi can advance inclusive and sustainable economic growth and development and improved livelihoods for its citizens and leverage the synergies with investments that reduce energy intensity and to increase its efficiency to mitigate the negative impact on the share of renewable energy (Target 7.2) and energy  efficiency (Target 7.3).​

9.2: Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization

SDG Target 9.2 aims to foster inclusive and sustainable industrialization in Malawi while simultaneously enhancing its economic growth. Despite recent improvements, manufacturing value added as a proportion of GDP and per capita remains relatively low in Malawi (around 11.5 % in 2020).  

However, the pursuit of industrialization also entails tradeoffs. It requires careful consideration of environmental sustainability, as industrial activities can have adverse ecological impacts—affecting ecosystems (SDGs 15 and 2), potable water (SDG 6), life below water (SDG 14) and life on land (SDG 15).  Rapid industrialization could put pressure on energy access (Target 7.1) at the expense of energy sustainability (Targets 7.2 and 7.3). Ensuring inclusivity in this process is crucial to prevent potential social, gender and territorial inequalities (Targets 10, 5).

By investing in SDG 9.2 (inclusive and sustainable industrialization), Malawi can improve on its current employment challenges and focus on key priorities around eradication of poverty, reducing inequality, improving the business environment and local entrepreneurship. This, complemented with rural economic transformation that focuses on fostering commercially successful smallholders and creating on- and off-farm employment opportunities for smallholders, will both generate jobs in downstream agro-processing and the services sectors and increase demand for locally produced services.

11.b: Implement policies for inclusion, resource efficiency and disaster risk reduction

Persons affected by direct economic loss due to cyclones, floods, landslides, droughts, multiple shocks (exogenous and endogenous), including the COVID-19 pandemic, have  increased in the past decade in Malawi.

In a context in which climate change-related extreme weather events are expected to increase, it is critical to step up prevention, mitigation and adaptation interventions that strengthen the resilience of human settlements and cities across the country. Such interventions will be critical to enable Malawi to attain its SDGs and its ambitions to attain  sustainable environmental and natural resources management, disaster risk reduction, and to minimize the adverse impacts of climate change by 2030, as recognized in the MIP 1 2021 – 2030. 

Investing in SDG 11 (Sustainable and resilient cities and human settlements ) can help Malawi address current challenge of resilience of the poor and vulnerable to focus on key priority areas, such as water and sanitation, affordable and clean energy, sustainable and resilient infrastructure, environmental sustainability and to strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters.  

16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions

In Malawi approximately 44.8% of the population are satisfied with the public services they receive. By focusing on SDG 16 (Peace, justice, and strong institutions), and specifically Target 16.6, measures can be implemented to cut across all goals and pillars outlined in the MIP-1 2021 – 2030, where public services are provided. 

This offers Malawi the opportunity to set a higher ambition, for example, towards the percentage of the population satisfied with public services received. This increase will have a positive multiplier effect on the progress made for other SDGs. 

However, it is crucial to ensure that this goal is accompanied by safeguards to prevent the deepening of poverty inequalities. 

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Malawi's gross government debt, projected at 72.2% of GDP in 2023, is much higher than the low-income developing countries (LIDC) group average of 46.3%. Comparatively, the country will collect slightly more revenue, projected at 16.5% of GDP in 2023 versus 14.9% for the LIDC group. Compared to the average LIDC country, Malawi’s external debt servicing relative to revenue, projected at 6.8% this year, is lower, but given its high overall level of debt and sustained fiscal deficits, the latest DSA rates the country as ‘in debt distress’.

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Malawi is using an Integrated National Financing Framework to address key fiscal and financial constraints and to build a more sustainable financial architecture at the national level. Priority actions include developing and implementing a digital local tax payment platform building on lessons learned from the Malawi Revenue Authority’s Msonkho Online; improving business registration; strengthening property tax enforcement; optimizing mining royalties; preparing a Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy; implementing a Single Treasury Account for all ministries and SOEs to streamline the management and disbursement of public funds; and improving sector plans to stabilize the investment environment for the private sector.

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Malawi

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

  • Tax and revenue reform through digital tax administration
  • Tax for the SDGs
  • Debt sustainability for SDGs
  • Climate finance
  • Blended and public-private finance
  • SDG-aligned business environment and investment
  • Accessing financial markets and insurance
  • Remittances, philanthropy and faith-based financing
  • Leveraging the potential of trade, e.g. the African Continental Free Trade Area and other trading blocs

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).