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Integrated SDG Insights

Tunisia

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.

SDG Trends & Priorities This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.

SDG Interlinkages Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.

Finance & StimulusThese policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

Tunisia’s growth trajectory during the 2023-2025 cycle is projected to be 38% lower, on average, than that of the world and well below the country’s growth trajectory projected before the pandemic. Accordingly, the country’s SDG policy space is restricted, and the focus is on mitigating the effects of the downturn, especially on the most vulnerable households.

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This low economic expansion is not expected to exert a significant impact on poverty reduction. This brings to the fore the urgency to address key distributional challenges to accelerate poverty reduction, especially when using more stringent poverty thresholds, such as the $3.65 or $6.85. Moreover, Tunisia’s economic growth continues at the same carbon emission intensity of GDP. To ensure economic inclusion of vulnerable populations, girls and women in rural areas, Tunisia has launched several economic empowerment programs and launched a multi-donor trust fund for employment and youth in partnership with the United Nations.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

1.3: Implement nationally appropriate social protection systems and measures for all, including floors, and by 2030 achieve substantial coverage of the poor and the vulnerable

Tunisia has implemented various measures to support different sectors and vulnerable populations, but the social protection system still lacks an unemployment benefit scheme and significant inequalities remain. In 2013, a new social contract was signed outlining the necessary reforms for social protection and social justice.

While the current social protection system covers all socio-professional categories in the public and formal private sectors, it excludes informal sector workers who make up around 37 percent of the workforce. Additionally, the system fails to adequately represent poor and illiterate women and girls, including those in rural areas, as well as children.

The absence of appropriate and universal social protection system perpetuates poverty, foster unemployment and informal work, and reduces resilience. However, by investing in a comprehensive and expanded social protection system, the government can mitigate these risks and prioritize reducing poverty, unemployment, and informal work while enhancing overall resilience.

1.5: By 2030, build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters

Tunisia's poor management of natural resources and environment hampers wealth and sustainability, worsened by climate change, increasing vulnerabilities and undermining progress. This mismanagement prevents Tunisia from adequately addressing water and land resource challenges and increases the likelihood of instability and conflict as resources become scarcer.

Despite Tunisia's commitment to international agreements like the Paris Agenda and its efforts to enhance resilience to climate change through Nationally Determined Contributions, ineffective resource management exacerbates inequality and threatens economic growth. The negative impacts are disproportionately borne by the poorest, most marginalized, and vulnerable populations, particularly those in the interior regions who heavily rely on the land.  

Investing in resilience-building for the poor can mitigate the risk of poverty, reduce unemployment and informal labor, and minimize conflict. It presents an opportunity for long-term development that emphasizes sustainability, social equity, innovation, and the rights of future generations to natural resources and ecosystems.

8.2: Achieve higher levels of productivity of economies through diversification, technological upgrading and innovation, including through a focus on high value added and labor-intensive sectors

Tunisia has been experiencing social and economic challenges, for more than 10 years, with a very tight fiscal space, and weak economic growth, unable to allow for a strong economic recovery based on a investment push and job creation. The pandemic and the war in Ukraine have exacerbated these challenges, with a greater impact on vulnerable populations.

Nevertheless, Tunisia has been committed for several years to unlocking the potential of the private sector and improving the business climate, to enhance the competitiveness and productivity of the Tunisian economy, mainly through the implementation of a series of emergency measures in favor of private investment.

In the medium term, and within the framework of its NDP 2023-2025, the Tunisian government is committed to strengthening the competitiveness  and diversification of the economy, as well as to promoting the knowledge-based economy as a key driver of innovation and creativity, focusing on emerging sectors with high potential of growth, start-ups, and investment in technological infrastructure, to improve Tunisia's positioning on international markets and value chains.

9.5: Enhance scientific research, upgrade the technological capabilities of industrial sectors in all countries, in particular developing countries, including, by 2030, encouraging innovation and substantially increasing the number of research and development workers per 1 million people and public and private research and development spending

Tunisian industry is characterized by a weak integration into global value chains and low technological content The country's exports are concentrated on a small number of products with limited added value. In addition, inadequate infrastructure in rural areas exacerbates inequality and poverty.

However, by investing in high value-added economic opportunities, Tunisia can improve livelihoods, reduce unemployment rates and strengthen the resilience of its economy. Such investments would contribute to the development of a more robust and competitive industrial sector, enabling Tunisia to better integrate into global markets and improve its overall economic performance.

10.2: By 2030, empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all, irrespective of age, sex, disability, race, ethnicity, origin, religion or economic or other status

The profile of poor households has not fundamentally changed in the last 5 years. Tunisia faces increasing exclusion, regional disparities, and marginalization of the youth and other vulnerable groups who are critical actors of change. Youth participation in politics is declining, and inability of the development process and the governance system to integrate youth and provide opportunities for their contribution to economic and social growth.

Promoting equal opportunities through empowerment of all allows increased innovation in sectors, reduces inequalities and reduces unemployment. Tunisia would also benefit from investing in data capacity as the lack of systematically collected and disaggregated data prevents assessing the inclusion of all.  

16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions at all levels

Tunisia has progressed in setting up new democratic institutions and independent bodies as well as the strengthening of its legislative framework. Major achievements have been made since 2011. Public authorities have taken significant steps in the transitional justice process and in reforming the judicial and security sectors to enhance rule of law, accountability, the transparency of institutions and processes and to enshrine human rights principles. For instance, satisfaction with government services rises at 75%.

Weak democratic control and oversight engenders the persistence of corrosive practices such as corruption, nepotism and discrimination.

Addressing transparency is crucial for Tunisia to ensure its growth is sustainable and inclusive .

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Tunisia's gross government debt is expected at 80% of GDP in 2023, which is 11.2 percentage points (pp) above the 68.8% for the group of emerging market and middle-income economies (EMMIE), and the country is battling a debt crisis since 2022. With expected 27.8% of GDP this year, Tunisia collects 1.8 percentage points (pp) more than the average EMMIE country with 26%. Natural resources account for 4.6% of the country’s revenue.

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Tunisia’s external debt servicing this year is expected to be as high as 24.7% of revenue and thus double the EMMIE average of 12.3%. The country’s credit rating is in the ‘default’ category and the country has lost access to international financial markets, with issued bonds trading at deep discounts. Tunisia is using an Integrated National Financing Framework to address key fiscal and financial constraints and build a more sustainable financial architecture at the national level. Priority reforms have been identified in the areas of tax policies, rationalization of public spending (including energy subsidies), foreign investments (including FDI) and private sector investments (including public-private partnerships), business environment, as well as the area of innovative financing, including green finance, sustainable bonds and impact monitoring and measurement.

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Tunisia

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by Tunisia possible financing options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are:

  • Tax and revenue reform
  • Debt for SDGs
  • Climate finance
  • Blended and public-private finance
  • SDG Aligned business environment and investment
  • Accessing financial markets and insurance
  • Remittances, philanthropy and faith-based financing

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).