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Integrated SDG Insights

Peru

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.

SDG Trends & Priorities This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.

SDG Interlinkages Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.

Finance & StimulusThese policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

It is anticipated that Peru's pace of growth during the 2023-2025 cycle will remain in coping phase, falling below the country's pre-pandemic growth trajectory. This is exacerbated by challenges characterized by high informality, low productivity and the difficulties faced in reducing poverty. Consequently, the SDG policy space is limited, emphasizing the need to mitigate the effects of the downturn on the poorest and most vulnerable households and informal workers, while also investing in effective governance. Notably, the Peruvian debt/GDP is one of the lowest in the region and Peru boasts one of the largest ratios of international reserves/GDP.

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This pace of economic growth is expected to be slightly less dependent on carbon emissions, as the country’s fossil emissions intensity of GDP is expected to decline at an annual rate of 1.7%. When considering land-use change, the carbon intensity remains lower, but it is exhibiting an upward trend. While the incidence of extreme poverty is expected to slightly decrease, significant distributional challenges remain, both in terms of stagnation in progress and relatively high levels when more demanding thresholds are applied.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

1.5: By 2030, build the resilience of the poor and those in vulnerable situations and reduce their exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events and other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters

Despite progress in some areas, poverty remains a significant issue in Peru, with 27.5% of the population living below the poverty line as of 2022. The challenges have been further compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has disproportionately impacted the most vulnerable, including indigenous communities and people living in rural areas. The World Bank (2023) estimates that approximately 7 out of 10 Peruvians are either poor or vulnerable.

Recent climate-related events have highlighted the significant vulnerability and limited coping capacity of vulnerable populations in Peru. By prioritizing resilience-building efforts, Peru can address multiple challenges simultaneously - helping the poor and vulnerable while also positively impacting other priority areas, such as Industry, Innovation, infrastructure (SDG 9) and productivity through education and overall economic growth (SDGs 4 and 8).

3.8: Achieve universal health coverage, including financial risk protection, access to quality essential health-care services and access to safe, effective, quality and affordable essential medicines and vaccines for all

SDG 3 is a key priority in both Peru's 2021 National Agreement (Acuerdo Nacional) and national planning documents. Advancing towards SDG target 3.8, which focuses on achieving universal access to healthcare, has become increasingly crucial in the wake of the COVID-19. The pandemic emphasized the critical importance of health care access as a key driver for development, setting the foundations for implementing other SDGs, such as SDG 1, SDG 8 or SDG 10.

Investing in universal health care and ensuring access to quality and affordable health services can have far-reaching benefits. These include improved educational outcomes, higher productivity levels, reduced poverty and reduction of inequalities - all essential areas where Peru must make progress to reach the 2030 development agenda.

8.5: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all women and men, including for young people and persons with disabilities, and equal pay for work of equal value

As one of the LAC countries with the highest level of labour informality (above 78% according to the latest data), promoting decent work and productivity could have a positive impact on several areas of development for Peru, and play a key role in advancing many SDGs.

Through investments in initiatives to propel SDG 8.5, Peru can simultaneously address employment challenges, while also making progress towards closing gaps related to poverty, health, well-being and inequality target indicators - all development priority areas for the government.

Efforts to promote formal sectors of the economy could also increase the tax base while expanding coverage of social protection systems. Policies and reforms need to consider the behavioural aspects and incentives that workers and SMEs face when making decisions between the formal and informal sectors.

9.2: Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization, and by 2030 raise significantly industry’s share of employment and GDP in line with national circumstances, and double its share in LDCs​

Promoting inclusive and sustainable industrialization (SDG 9.2) is of significant importance for Peru, as it can increase the industry's contribution to employment and GDP, while also potentially reducing poverty (SDG 1.1 and 1.2). Similarly, supporting industries can positively benefit agricultural production, although it is important to acknowledge the possibility of a labour shortage in the sector as other industries develop.

Conversely, new industries have the potential to absorb workers, a critical aspect of structural transformation required for effecting a positive impact on society as a whole. To ensure inclusivity, efforts should be focused on sectors that provide employment and training opportunities for impoverished communities thereby ensuring that no one is left behind

9.4: By 2030, upgrade infrastructure and retrofit industries to make them sustainable, with increased resource-use efficiency and greater adoption of clean and environmentally sound technologies and industrial processes, with all countries taking action, in accordance with their respective capabilities

Advancing industrialization and innovation is a key priority for the Government of Peru, as reflected in the National Policy for Industrial Development. Strategic infrastructure investments are planned to enhance value-chain efficiencies and leverage economies-of-scale across several sectors.

Progress towards indicator 9.4 could also have positive impacts on Clean Water and Sanitation (SDG 6) and Decent Work and Economic Growth (SDG 8). However, it is crucial to consider that investing in these areas may hinder advancements towards gender equality and the overall reduction of inequalities. These investments must take into account potential distributional effects across different segments of the population.

16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions at all levels

Focusing on SDG 16 (peace, justice, and strong institutions), especially Target 16.6, can have a multiplier effect on various SDGs and targets in Peru, spanning key areas like decent work and economic growth.

To effectively reduce informality and ensure access to public services for vulnerable populations, investments in institutions should be accompanied by improved implementation capacity and citizens’ engagement. Strengthening institutional capacity can also contribute to achieving targets related to zero hunger (2.2), affordable and clean energy (7.1 and 7.2) and inclusive and sustainable industrialization (9.2).

Furthermore, enhancing Peru's institutional efficiency will improve expenditure quality, thereby positively impacting productivity rates. Currently, there are over 2,300 paralyzed public works projects worth approximately US$11.3 billion, with an estimated US$7 billion in pending investments.

It is important to highlight that additional investments and initiatives need to be supported by comprehensive data collection. The absence of several target indicators in Peru hinders the effectiveness of the policy cycle.

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Peru's government debt, expected at 33% of GDP in 2023, is significantly below the emerging market and middle-income economies (EMMIE) average of 68.8%. Revenue is 21.5% of GDP, which is 5.5 percentage points (pp) below the EMMIE group’s 26%. ​

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Expected 2023 external debt servicing is only about 4% of revenue compared to a group average of 12.3%. Despite credit rating downgrades since the onset of the global pandemic, Peru has maintained an investment grade rating and a significantly higher rating than the EMMIE average. The 10-year bond yield of 7.32% is lower by 2 pp compared to the EMMIE average and higher by 3.6 pp to a 10Y US Treasury bond.

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Peru

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

  • Tax and revenue reform​
  • Debt for SDGs​
  • Climate finance​
  • Blended and public-private finance​
  • SDG Aligned business environment and investment​
  • Accessing financial markets and insurance

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).