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Integrated SDG Insights

Sri Lanka

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.

SDG Trends & Priorities This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.

SDG Interlinkages Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.

Finance & StimulusThese policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

Sri Lanka's recent economic challenges have led to the ongoing crisis. The poverty rate surged from 13.1% to 25% in 2022 (World Bank), with further increases expected due to various threats to livelihoods. The attempt to promote green growth by replacing chemical fertilizers with eco-friendly alternatives faced implementation issues, affecting agriculture and food security.

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A buildup of public financing and debt sustainability issues led to the economic downturn and the country did not have the space to recover post-pandemic as rapidly as many other countries. Sri Lanka dealt with debt distress, fiscal constraints and declining private sector growth and is expected to face an economic contraction in 2023, but to slowly recover from 2024 onwards. The country considers the current situation as an opportunity to rebuild the economy while achieving the SDGs. The government has already started acting on immediate measures, such as macroeconomic reforms to stabilize the economy and on social protection reform as a cushion for the most vulnerable, while also engaging in long term-measures, such as cost-reflective energy, taxation and other institutional reforms. Additionally, Sri Lanka has actively pursued economic growth and human development with a focus on reducing carbon emissions. The country has implemented measures to enhance resilience to climate change and to mitigate its effects. These efforts including the development of nationally determined contributions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change that align with the global mission to combat the impacts of climate change. The commitment to achieving the SDGs is focused on reversing the adverse impacts of the crisis to reduce poverty, elevate human development and ultimately achieve sustainable economic growth, while addressing the needs of the most vulnerable.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

1.4: Equal rights to ownership, basic services, technology and economic resources​

Amid Sri Lanka's economic crisis, poverty and vulnerability have surged. Poverty rates doubled between 2021 and 2022 from 13.1% to 25% with an additional 2.5 million people living below the poverty line in 2022 alone. To address this crisis, Sri Lanka introduced the "Aswesuma" social welfare system, which consolidates four essential programs aimed at assisting the most vulnerable households – those living in poverty, the elderly, individuals with disabilities, and those suffering from chronic kidney disease.

Social protection is a central component of Sri Lanka's 'National Transformation Roadmap' and aligns with IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) recommendations. The government is committed to pro-poor economic policies, prioritizing the well-being of vulnerable populations and fostering inclusive growth.

SDG target 1.4, contributes to SDG 2 (Zero hunger) by ensuring access to productive resources for vulnerable groups, SDG 5 (Gender equality) by addressing women's economic empowerment, and SDG 12 (Responsible consumption and production). While synergies exist with some targets linked to goals such as clean water and sanitation (SDG 6) and life on land (SDG 15), there are also trade-offs within these same SDGs.

1 World Bank.

2.4: Sustainable food production and resilient agricultural practices​

A World Food Programme report highlights that more than 6 million Sri Lankans (constituting around 30% of the population and 86% of families) face food insecurity, largely due to unaffordability during the hyperinflation of 2022. The cost of living continues to rise due to elevated input costs and disruptions in agricultural practices caused by unusual weather patterns.

Investing in achieving SDG target 2.4 can mitigate food waste (which accounts for roughly 30-40% of production), and foster agri-oriented research and innovation to improve agricultural practices, especially in value chains. These practices offer promising returns, such as solar-powered cold chain storage for vegetables (8-11% return) and fruits (over 56% return).

Investing in target 2.4 will also help mitigate the impact of climate change on agriculture, thereby increasing the sector's contribution to GDP, which stood at 7.5% in 2022. It can also enhance the physical and mental well-being of people (SDG 3.4) and contribute to reducing poverty (SDG 1.2).

As signified by the trade-offs, increased productivity and production should not be at the cost of increased pollution (SDG 6.3) and an even higher dependence on fossil fuels (SDG 7.2). An approach that will enable sustainable management of natural resources is vital (SDG 12.2).

7.2: Increase percentage of renewable energy​

Securing renewable energy generation is crucial for Sri Lanka's sustainable development. The nation's ongoing reliance on fossil fuel-generated electricity harms both the environment and the economy, with 30% of export earnings spent on fuel imports. Additionally, only 9.7% of electricity was derived from renewable sources in 2020. To address these challenges, the government envisions a long-term transition to achieving at least 70% renewable energy generation by 2030.

Propelling SDG 7.2 forward can foster economic growth by achieving higher levels of economic productivity (SDG 8.2) and sustainable industrialization (SDG 9.2), while also encouraging responsible consumption and production practices (SDG 12.4)

The renewable energy sector is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of over 25% for a time-frame of 5-10 years, which can help other industries to reduce their environmental footprint.

Potential investment in this area should, however, ensure that the transition to renewable energy is accessible to all in the society, and therefore an inclusive approach is needed that will be able to circumvent any trade-offs, such as the exploitation of natural resources, e.g., water (SDG 6.3).

8.5: Full employment and decent work with equal pay​

In 2021, Sri Lanka had a significant gender gap in labor force participation, with 71% for males and only 31.8% for females. A substantial 58.4% of the workforce was engaged in the informal sector, and the economic crisis in 2022 exacerbated existing challenges, leading to increased youth unemployment and a brain drain. Additionally, those in the informal sector lacked sufficient social protection coverage.

Increasing investments to accelerate SDG target 8.5 will aid Sri Lanka in achieving decent work and productivity, which will have a multiplier effect on the development of other SDG targets, such as target 4.1 (Improving education), target 4.4 (Vocational training for decent work), and 9.5 (Upgrading technological capabilities). It will also help reducing poverty and ensuring women's full and effective participation is recorded and rewarded with equal pay (latest data shows female participation in the informal sector is 49.7%).

However, achieving full employment should not compromise on increasing renewable energy (SDG 7.2) and energy efficiency (SDG 7.3) which are potential trade-offs that need to be managed.

16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions​

The Government of Sri Lanka views corruption as a macroeconomic concern and  aims to improve governance by implementing measures to strengthen the anti-corruption framework, enhance state-owned enterprise governance and to leverage e-government platforms for revenue collection and expenditure management.

In line with the IMF recommendations, the following legislation is in place:

  1. As the country recognizes the need for a durable institutional framework, supporting flexible inflation targeting and greater exchange rate flexibility. To achieve this, by strengthening the autonomy of the Central Bank, a new Central Bank Act has been passed by the parliament and will soon be implemented.
  2. To enhance fiscal transparency and governance, strengthen anti-corruption measures and conduct thorough governance assessments, an Anti- Corruption Bill was passed in Parliament.
  3. The Public Financial Management (PFM) department collaborates with other government institutions to improve the management of public resources, fostering growth, development and poverty reduction. To address existing gaps and loopholes, a new PFM law will be introduced, ensuring legal clarity in the budget formulation process and establishing requirements for information and accountability.

Governance will be critical as Sri Lanka embarks on the next phase of the crises and ensuring trust in the institutions to support the rest of the SDGs including SDG 17.3 on mobilizing resources and partnership.

17.3: Mobilize financial resources for developing countries ​

In terms of foreign direct investment (FDI),Sri Lanka has implemented investor-friendly policies to attract external capital. The Board of Investment (BOI) is key in promoting FDI in manufacturing, tourism and infrastructure. Special economic zones and incentives are also in place to attract multinational corporations. BOI aims for US$1.5 billion FDIs in 2023, with $211 million achieved in the first quarter and $3 billion FDI inflows by 2026.

Sri Lanka's remittances from migrant workers have bounced back after a slump in 2021-2022, providing crucial support to its vulnerable external sector. In June, the country received $475.7 million, a slight dip from April’s $479.7 million, but substantially higher than the $274.3 million received a year ago during a period of acute foreign exchange challenges. These inflows play a key role in stabilizing Sri Lanka’s external finances.

The government has also made several efforts to establish a conducive ecosystem for innovative/ sustainable financing to meet Sri Lanka’s SDG targets while achieving debt sustainability. Noteworthy measures comprise a sustainable financing road map, green taxonomy, green bond framework and new instruments, such as Debt-for-Nature swaps. Furthermore, the 2023 National Budget introduces a ‘Marine Spatial plan’ to attract sustainable investments and uphold nature conservation targets aligned with SDG commitments.

Sri Lanka actively nurtures South-South cooperation, engaging with both bilateral counterparts like China, India and Thailand and with multilateral alliances, including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the BRICS, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation.

However, Sri Lanka has not made a specific calculation of the SDG financing requirements. An estimate made in 2019 indicated that achieving the SDGs by 2030 would necessitate an annual investment equivalent to 9% of GDP. Considering this estimate was from 2019, it is likely that the funding gap has widened due to the challenges faced.

Sri Lanka's active engagement in international cooperation, as outlined in SDG target 17.3, has far-reaching synergies across most of the SDGs. Notably, this contributes to the promotion of affordable and clean energy (SDG 7) and climate action (SDG 13) the most, among other goals. It reflects a holistic approach to sustainable development.

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Sri Lanka's gross government debt, projected at 117.7% of GDP in 2023, is more than 1.8 times the emerging market and middle-income economies (EMMIE) average of 68.8%. The country has been managing an acute economic downturn since 2019, which also sparked a political crisis in 2022. In April 2022, Sri Lanka suspended repayments on its debt, and subsequently approached the IMF for support via the EFF. The 17th IMF programme includes an ambitious set of fiscal reforms which the government is currently implementing. However, revenue targets to collect 8.5% of GDP in revenue this year are yet to be reached.

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Sri Lanka's external debt servicing this year is expected to be as high as 72.1% of revenue, which is nearly six times the EMMIE group's 12.3%. The country’s credit rating is in the ‘selective default’ category and hence significantly below the EMMIE average of ‘non-investment grade speculative’. The country’s 10-year bond yield is trading at 20.8% – 11.5 percentage points (pp) above the EMMIE average of 9.3%, and 17 pp above a 10-Year US Treasury bond. Due to the combined impact of low government revenue, high debt servicing costs and constraints to access commercial capital, investments in the SDGs are likely to remain a challenge.

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Sri Lanka

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

  • Tax and revenue reform
  • Debt for SDGs through instruments such as debt swaps and thematic bonds
  • Climate finance
  • Blended and public-private finance
  • SDG-aligned business environment and investment
  • Accessing financial markets and insurance

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).