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Integrated SDG Insights

Comoros

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.

SDG Trends & Priorities This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.

SDG Interlinkages Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.

Finance & StimulusThese policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

The economy of the Comoros is in coping mode in 2023-2024 and is projected to transition into acceleration mode by 2025. This pace of growth is characterized by being 20% higher, on average, than the global figure and is in alignment with the country’s growth trajectory projected before the pandemic.

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This economic expansion, however, is not expected to exert any noticeable effect on lowering the incidence of poverty. Hence, the country’s commitments to achieving the SDGs should focus on increasing people’s well-being and overcoming economic stagnation. On the other hand, the pace of economic growth would be increasingly dependent on fossil carbon emissions, as the country’s carbon emissions intensity of GDP is expected to increase at an annual rate of 9% due to fossil fuel usage.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

8.5: By 2030, achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all women and men, including for young people and persons with disabilities, and equal pay for work of equal value.

Poverty  levels remain high, estimated at 39.0% in 2022 using the lower middle-income poverty rate ($3.65 at 2017 PPPs) due to scarce job opportunities in the formal sector.  High unemployment rates have contributed to frustration among the youth (with 53 percent of the population under the age of 20) and helped to drive outward migration and reliance on the informal sector. High rates of youth unemployment and limited opportunities also represent a social risk with respect to narcotics trafficking and extremism. 

To create jobs and reduce poverty, it is essential that the Comoros increases its growth potential substantially through the accumulation of human capital and physical assets, attracting new  investments in its rich natural resources, in fisheries, modern agriculture for food security, light agroindustry, tourism and crafts, the Blue Economy, financial services, information and communication technology which have a large untapped potential to support structural transformation.  

By focusing on SDG target 8.5, deepening trade and value chain integration, the Comoros can expand opportunities for all groups in society, with a focus on populations that are most at risk of exclusion, including women and youth. 

Progress on Target 8.5 should be supported with policies that reduce energy intensity and increase its effectiveness in mitigating the negative impact on the share of renewable energy (Target 7.2), coupled with energy  efficiency (Target 7.3) and strengthening the country’s resilience to environmental and climate shocks. 

9.2: Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and, by 2030, significantly raise industry’s share of employment and gross domestic product, in line with national circumstances, and double its share in least developed countries.

The agricultural and secondary sectors’ contribution to growth has remained low and at times even negative in the Comoros. Pursuing SDG target 9.2 will  foster inclusive and sustainable industrialization in the Comoros while simultaneously enhancing its economic growth and employment prospects.

However, the pursuit of industrialization also entails tradeoffs. It requires careful consideration of environmental sustainability as industrial activities can have adverse ecological impacts—affecting ecosystems (SDGs 15 and 2), potable water (SDG 6), life below water (SDG 14) and life on land (SDG 15).  Rapid industrialization could put pressure on energy access (Target 7.2) at the expense of energy sustainability (Targets 7.2 and 7.3). Ensuring inclusivity in this process is crucial to preventing potential social, gender and territorial inequalities (Target 10. 5)  

By investing in SDG 9.2 (inclusive and sustainable industrialization), the Comoros can improve on its current employment challenges and focus on key priorities, namely poverty eradication, reducing inequality and improving the business environment and local entrepreneurship. This, complemented with policy interventions that focus on tourism and crafts; on the Blue Economy; on a financial hub for the Indian Ocean; on modern agriculture for food security; and on industrial niches for diversification to generate jobs for women and youth. 

16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions at all levels.

In the Comoros approximately 58.1% of the population are satisfied with the public services they receive. By focusing on SDG 16 (Peace, justice and strong institutions), and specifically Target 16.6, the Comoros can increase its ability to achieve sustained, inclusive and high economic growth needed to reduce extreme poverty. Extreme poverty reduction can be enhanced by improving governance, strengthening institutions, the rule of law, public accountability and the fight against corruption. 

Investments and policy choices that strengthen institutions is recognized in Comoros as a fundamental driver for the eradication of extreme poverty (target 1.1) over the medium term with significantly higher and more inclusive growth (Target 8.1) with positive benefits to national efforts to build resilience to shocks and disasters (Target 1.5).

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Comoros' gross government debt, expected at 32.5% of GDP in 2023, is nearly a third below the low-income developing countries (LIDC) average of 48.3%. The country is expected to collect 14.3% of GDP in revenue this year, close to the LIDC group ratio of 14.9%. Comoros' public external debt servicing this year is expected to reach 16.1% of revenue and thus 2 percentage points (pp) above the LIDC average. Due to extensive financing gaps from funding large projects using non-concessional debt, the latest World Bank and IMF DSA rates the country as ‘in high risk of debt distress’. 

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Comoros is using an Integrated National Financing Framework to address key fiscal and financial constraints and build a more sustainable financial architecture at the national level. Priority actions include modernization and digitalization of tax administration, public investment management and banking services; formalization of businesses; analysis and optimization of tax incentives; the development of a multi-year debt strategy and legal framework (including debt negotiation, prior analysis, parliamentary control, selection of eligible projects, and monitoring); the integration of climate risks into financial sector risk assessment frameworks; guarantee mechanisms for enhancing MSMEs’ access to long term finance; and the reduction of transfer costs to increase diaspora long-term savings. 

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Comoros

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

  • Tax and revenue reform
  • Debt for SDGs
  • Islamic and green finance 
  • Climate finance
  • Blended and public-private finance
  • SDG-aligned business environment and investment
  • Accessing financial markets and insurance
  • Diaspora investment and remittances

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).