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Integrated SDG Insights

Vanuatu

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.

SDG Trends & Priorities This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.

SDG Interlinkages Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.

Finance & StimulusThese policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

Vanuatu’s growth trajectory during the 2023-2025 cycle is in acceleration mode, projected to be 22% higher, on average, than the global projection, and well above the country’s growth trajectory forecast before the pandemic. Accordingly, Vanuatu’s commitments to achieving the SDGs are focused on increasing people’s well-being.

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Vanuatu’s economic expansion is not projected to exert a significant impact on reducing poverty/hardship (currently at 15.9% when considering the national poverty line) given the negative impacts of the Tropical Cyclones Pam, Harold, Judy and Kevin. This brings to the fore the urgency to address key distributional challenges to accelerate progress, especially when using stringent poverty thresholds. This pace of economic growth, on the other hand, would be somewhat less dependent on carbon emissions as the country’s fossil-fuel carbon emissions intensity of GDP is projected to decline at an annual rate of 0.4%. Favorable land-use change is expected to continue compensating and dominating over and above any dependency of GDP growth on emissions from fossil fuels.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

9.1: Develop sustainable, resilient and inclusive infrastructures

The recent economic crisis caused by COVID-19 and natural disasters have highlighted economic vulnerabilities and developed the need to strengthen Vanuatu’s economic resilience and recovery through building a resilient infrastructure. An improved transport infrastructure for all is a clear objective of the country's National Sustainable Development Plan (NSDP).

High quality infrastructure is essential for Vanuatu's development as it can enhance logistical chains, delivery of services and access to markets, reducing the cost of doing business and improving productivity and economic growth. By creating more job opportunities, investments in SDG target 9.1 can directly contribute to poverty reduction. Trade offs related to clean water and sanitation and the environment would need to be carefully managed. Striking a balance between economic growth, infrastructure development and environmental and social well-being is critical to ensure that progress in one area does not come at the expense of another.

11.5: Reduce the adverse effects of natural disasters

Vanuatu had three ‘Category 5’ cyclones in the last three years. Only in 2023, the country was hit by ‘Category 4’ cyclones twice, which affected approximately 66 percent of the total population. These natural disasters have increased deprivations by disrupting health care and education services and severely damaging infrastructure. Livelihoods have also been deeply affected as 67% of workers (25,933 people) are in the informal economy. Based on the 2023 Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA)1, total recovery needs are estimated VUV 91.5 billion – mostly for transportation, housing, employment and livelihoods.​

As highlighted in its NSDP, the Government of Vanuatu aims to focus on climate and disaster resilience, with priorities such as the development of a disaster financing strategy. Boosting investments related to SDG target 11.5, such as disaster risk reduction (e.g., early warning systems and contingency plans for farmers and fishers), can directly contribute to climate resilience by reducing vulnerabilities and adapting to changing environmental conditions. It can also help to reduce poverty and hunger and to improve economic stability by preventing disruptions to businesses, tourism and other economic activities.​

1 PDNA- Vanuatu Tropical Cyclones Judy and Kevin, 2023.​

16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions

Effective institutions are essential for upholding the rule of law, providing legal protection to citizens and businesses, and for maintaining social order, cohesion and coordinating disaster response efforts. Improving governance mechanisms, eradicating corruption and enhancing the accountability of public officials are among the main objectives of Vanuatu’s NSDP. The Government Machinery Review and the Decentralization Implementation are two flagship programmes for institutional strength/transparency.

Beyond contributing to peace, justice and stability, effective institutions have significant multiplier effects across a vast range of development outcomes as they create an enabling environment for economic growth and poverty reduction by delivering quality public services, promoting fair business practices and protecting property rights.

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Vanuatu's gross government debt, projected at 48.4% of GDP in 2023, is more than 20 percentage points below the emerging market and middle-income economies (EMMIE) group of 68.8%. The country is expected to collect 40% of GDP in revenue this year, thus more than 1.5 times the EMMIE group of 26%.

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Vanuatu's external debt servicing relative to revenue, at a projected 5.8% this year, is less than half the average EMMIE country of 12.3%. Due to mostly concessional borrowing but a limited ability to cope with natural disasters and macroeconomic shocks, the latest World Bank and IMF DSA from February 2023 rated Vanuatu as at a ‘moderate risk of debt distress’.

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Vanuatu

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

  • Tax and revenue reform
  • Debt for SDGs – Revised Debt Management Strategy
  • Climate finance
  • Blended and public-private finance. Public-private partnership (PPP) Policy and PPP Act  drafted.
  • SDG-aligned business environment and investment
  • Accessing financial markets and insurance
  • Remittances, philanthropy and faith-based financing

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).