SDG Push Insight Report

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan
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Integrated SDG Insights

Uzbekistan

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment — This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.‍

SDG Trends & Priorities — This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.
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SDG Interlinkages — Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.
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‍Finance & Stimulus — These policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

During the 2023-2025 cycle, Uzbekistan’s growth trajectory is in acceleration mode, characterized by being 83% higher, on average, than the global projection and converging with the country’s growth trajectory forecast before the pandemic. Accordingly, Uzbekistan’s commitments to achieving the SDGs are focused on increasing people’s well-being.

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This pace of growth would exert a moderately positive impact on reducing poverty, though there are still challenges to accelerate poverty reduction from its relatively high prevailing levels when using more stringent thresholds. The economic expansion, on the other hand, would be somewhat less dependent on carbon emissions as the country’s carbon emissions intensity of GDP is expected to decrease at annual rates of 4% under current conditions.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

4.3: By 2030, ensure equal access for all women and men to affordable and quality technical, vocational and tertiary education, including university

Investments in human capital is a crucial accelerator for the whole SDG agenda for Uzbekistan. Ensuring equal access for all to quality education produces relevant skills (Target 4.4) for youth, which is key in the age of rapid economic and social change, as well as being a driver of sustainable industrialization and digitalization. Investments in secondary education (Target 4.1) and competitive skills (Target 4.3) could help young people to set out on a future-proof path, ensuring employment (Target 8.6), and contribute to accelerated economic growth (Target 8.1).

Addressing evident differences (Target 10.1) in education by expanding options for boys and girls will contribute to women’s empowerment (Target 5.5). Investment in women and girls across all levels of decision-making in political and economic life (Target 5.5) and enhancement in the use of technology to empower women (Target 5.b) contribute to achieving this target. Sustainable urbanization, including transportation services (Targets 11.1, 11.2) and targeted inclusion policies for disadvantaged group (Targets 1.3, 10.3) will contribute to improving equality of opportunities.

8.3: Promote development-oriented policies that support productive activities, decent job creation, entrepreneurship, creativity and innovation, and encourage the formalization and growth of micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises, including through access to financial services

The policies for accelerated, inclusive and sustainable growth of Uzbekistan’s economy (Target 8.3) aim at improving the well-being of the population. These policies seek to achieve faster economic growth (Target 8.1) through sustainable industrialization (Target 9.1), digitalization (Target 9.c) and trade facilitation (Targets 8.a, 17.10, 17.11).

The growth has the potential to increase agricultural productivity (Target 2.3) and industrial productivity (Targets 9.2, 9.3) - both development priorities for Uzbekistan. Digitalization, which lies at the heart of these policies, requires developing quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure, including ICT (Targets 9.1, 9.c)

Economic growth policies should resolve trade-offs with the quality of economic growth, namely achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources (Target 12.2) and of resource efficiency (Target 8.4), increasing energy efficiency (Targets 7.2, 7.3) and, ultimately, decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation while ensuring climate resilience (Targets 13, 14, 15)

11.1: By 2030, ensure access for all to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services and upgrade slums

In Uzbekistan the quality of life – in terms of affordable housing and basic services – varies significantly by regions. On average only 59% of the population is using safely managed drinking water services, while in urban areas this rate is much higher at 86%, compared to only 31% in rural areas.

Non-sustainable urbanization and lack of affordable fuels result in high air pollution in urban areas, affecting the health of the population (Target 3.9). Providing universal access for all to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services requires investments in resilient infrastructure (Targets 9.1, 9.4) to make them climate change and disaster ready (Targets 1.5, 13.2). Investment in women and girls across all levels of decision-making in political and economic life (Target 5.5) and guarantee of their rights to access and control resources (Targets 1.4, 5.a) will also contribute to improving the well-being and resilience of livelihoods.

It will contribute to reducing inequalities (Target 10)  and also to reducing conflicts (Target 16). Measures to decrease multidimensional poverty (1.2) and to tackle inequalities (10) are deeply rooted in improving well-being and in building the resilience of livelihoods. It also could have a positive impact on the sustainability of ecosystems (Targets 6, 14, 15)

12.2: By 2030, achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources

The policies for accelerated growth would not be relevant, if they were not delivering inclusive and sustainable growth. Target 12.2, focusing on sustainable use of natural resources, lies at the heart of the Green Economy. It is closely linked with sustainable and inclusive agricultural practices (Targets 2.3, 2.4, 2.5), energy transition (Targets 7.2, 7.3), sustainable infrastructure (Targets 9.1, 9.4) and an inclusive economy (Targets 1.4, 2.3, 4.4, 5.5, 10.3).

Building a just and inclusive economy requires investment in women and girls across all levels of decision-making in political and economic life (Target 5.5) and guarantee of their rights to access and control of resources (Targets 1.4, 5.a). The goal of the green economy is decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation while ensuring climate resilience (Targets 13, 14, 15).

Building the green economy –  one of the strategic goals of Uzbekistan – requires resolving short-term trade-offs with the pressing needs of accelerated growth. It requires providing transitory social protection measures to those affected by the transition (Target 1.3), building skills for the future (Target 4.4) and investments in sustainable infrastructure (Targets 9.1, 9.4) using innovative finances (Target 17.3).

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)
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Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Uzbekistan's gross government debt, projected at 33.9% of GDP in 2023, is 14.4 percentage points (pp) below the low-income developing countries (LIDC) group of 48.3%. The country is projected to collect 27% of GDP in revenue this year, thus nearly double the LIDC group's 14.9%.

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Uzbekistan's external debt servicing this year is projected at 8% of revenue compared to 14.1% for the LIDC average. The country’s credit rating is in the ‘non-investment grade speculative’ category and thus above the LIDC average of ‘highly speculative’. The latest World Bank and IMF DSA from June 2022 rated the country as at ‘moderate risk of debt distress’.

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Uzbekistan

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by Uzbekistan, possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

  • Tax and revenue reform:
  • Recognizing taxation loopholes via deployment of the Tax Inspectors Without Borders and redirecting additional revenues to SDG areas
  • Increased deployment of tax policies as a vehicle for the SDG stimulus via improved and more SDG-targeted tax incentives (mapping tax incentives by SDG targets) and tailored tax rates to promote/demote specific sectors and consumption pattern (e.g. health taxes on tobacco, sugar-sweetened beverages).
  • Debt for SDGs: further deployment of various sustainability bonds mechanisms (SDG bonds, green bonds) to accelerate investments in those areas
  • Climate finance: policy, institutional and advocacy support in operationalization of blended finance mechanisms to support green SMEs led by women (Green Lady Fund) and afforestation programmes.
  • Introduction of green budgeting principles and instruments to facilitate government expenditures in climate/green areas (SDG/Green budget tagging, programme-based budgeting linked with SDG targets)
  • Blended and public-private finance
  • SDG-aligned business environment and investment
  • Accessing financial markets and insurance
  • Remittances, philanthropy and faith-based financing
  • Support and acceleration in SDG-aligned investments from the Restitution Fund

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).