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Integrated SDG Insights
Tajikistan

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.

SDG Trends & Priorities This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.

SDG Interlinkages Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.

Finance & StimulusThese policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

Tajikistan’s economic growth rate during 2023-2024 is projected to be above global averages, although it is forecast to drop in 2025.This pace of growth is characterized by being 53% higher, on average, than that of the world, and above the country’s growth trajectory projected before the pandemic. Accordingly, Tajikistan’s commitments to achieving the SDGs are based on four pillars of the NDS2030: (i) ensuring energy security and efficient use of electricity; (ii) overcoming challenges of being landlocked and becoming a transit country; (iii) ensuring food security and quality; and (iv) rapid industrialization and expansion of productive employment

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The pace of economic growth is expected to contribute to the reduction of poverty —though there are still significant challenges to accelerate progress, especially for disadvantaged and left behind groups and localities. Significant challenges remain, in particular on female-to-male labor force participation rate. In 2023-25, country’s carbon emissions intensity of GDP is expected to significantly increase at an annual rate of 28% under the current conditions2, therefore addressing resource and energy efficiency to ensure that Tajikistan’s economic expansion doesn’t come at the expense of the environment.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

2.2: By 2030 end all forms of malnutrition, including achieving by 2025 the internationally agreed targets on stunting and wasting in children under 5 years of age, and address the nutritional needs of adolescent girls, pregnant and lactating women, and older persons

Target 2.2, focusing on food security and (mal)nutrition, holds significant importance for Tajikistan. It addresses eradication of worst form of poverty (1) by ensuring access to nutritious food. Despite significant progress in reducing prevalence of children stunting (by half from 30% in 2010 to 15% in 2020). However, further efforts will be focused on prevalence of children wasting and anemia among women deteriorate, reflecting persistent malnutrition.

Access to safe and nutritious food improves health outcomes and benefits educational achievements (SDGs 3 and 4). Moreover, it links closely to SDG 8, creating employment and contributing to rural economic growth. Guarantee of women’s rights to access and control resources (1.4, 5.a) is essential for ensuring food security.

Target 2.2 aligns with SDG 12's emphasis on sustainable consumption and production, with co-benefits that promote sustainable food systems and waste reduction. By building resilient agricultural practices (2.4), Tajikistan can mitigate climate change impacts (13) and support climate action. Ultimately, ensuring food security fosters social stability (10), reduces conflicts arising from food scarcity (16.1), and promotes good governance (16.6, 16.7).

4.3: By 2030 ensure equal access for all women and men to affordable quality technical, vocational and tertiary education, including university

In Tajikistan, SDG target 4.3 aims to ensure equal access to quality technical, vocational, and tertiary education. Tajikistan shows reasonable 11.7 expected years of schooling in 2021 and good progress in upper secondary education completion rate (which increased from 61 to 76 over past decade). Further efforts will be focused on ensuring quality of education, equal access and early child development.

SDG 4.3 and related 4.4 have important interlinkages with other SDGs, especially Goal 8 trough improving employability, reduced skills mismatch, and ensuring future-readiness of the people in the workforce, and ultimately reduced poverty (1). This will promote equal access to labor market for women/girls and men and further empowerment of women to participate into the local labor market (5.5).

Quality technical education will equip individuals with skills aligned with labor market demands, fostering decent work and economic growth (8). Quality technical education and future-proof skills are important driving factors of industrialization (9.2) and sustainable urbanization (11.1). Ultimately, equal access to technical education will reduce inequalities and promotes social inclusion (10).

9.2: Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization, and by 2030 raise significantly industry’s share of employment and GDP in line with national circumstances, and double its share in LDCs

SDG 9.2 aims to foster inclusive and sustainable industrialization in Tajikistan for enhancing its economic growth (8) and job opportunities, especially for young people (8.6). Despite recent improvements, manufacturing value added as a proportion of GDP and per capita remains relatively low in Tajikistan (around 12% in 2016-2019). Economic policies (8.3) play important role in industrialization, as well as reliable access to energy (7.1) and infrastructure (9.1).

Another accelerator for industrialization is adequate skill formation (4.3, 4.4), and ensuring future-proof skills. It is closely linked to investment in women and girls across all levels of decision-making in political and economic life (5.5) and enhancement of use of technology to empower women (5.b).

However, the pursuit of industrialization also entails tradeoffs. It requires careful consideration of environmental sustainability, as industrial activities can have adverse ecological impacts—affecting ecosystems (15, 2), potable water (6), health of people (3). Rapid industrialization could put pressure on energy access (7.2) at the expense of energy sustainability (7.2, 7.3). Ensuring inclusivity in this process is crucial to prevent potential social, gender, and territorial inequalities (10, 5)

11.1: By 2030, ensure access for all to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services and upgrade slums

In Tajikistan quality of life—in terms of affordable housing and basic services—varies significantly by regions. On average only 55% of population using safely managed drinking water services, and 74% have hand-washing facility. Further efforts should ensure universal access to electricity (7.1) and high share of renewable hydropower in electricity generation (7.2), taking into account non-sustainable urbanization and lack of affordable fuels result in high air pollution in urban areas, affecting health of population (3.9).

Non-sustainable urbanization and lack of affordable fuels result in high air pollution in urban areas, affecting health of population (3.9).

Providing universal access for all to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services requires investments in resilient infrastructure (9.1, 9.4) to make them climate change and disaster ready (1.5, 13.2). It will contribute to reduction of inequalities (10)  are reducing conflicts (16). It also could have positive impact on sustainability of ecosystems (6, 14, 15)

4. Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Under 5)

Malnourished Population (Number of People)

5. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Tajikistan's gross government debt is expected at 32.2% of GDP in 2023, which is 16 percentage points (pp) below the low-income developing countries (LIDC) group of 48.3%. The country is expected to collect 28.2% of GDP in revenue this year, thus 13.2 pp above the LIDC group of 14.9%.

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Tajikistan’s public external debt servicing this year is expected to reach 7.4% of revenue, which is 6.5 pp less than the LIDC average of 14.1%.

Low-Frequency Indicators

Financial Indicators

Total external debt servicing (% of revenue)

Heading

14.1

Averages
EMMIE
12.3
LIDC
14.1

6. SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

Along with the SDG budget-tagging exercises, which provide insights on efficiently allocating public funds for a relative increase in public goods and service provision, the UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by Tajikistan possible financing options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are:

  • Tax and revenue reform
  • Debt for SDGs
  • Climate finance
  • Blended and public-private finance
  • SDG Aligned business environment and investment
  • Accessing financial markets and insurance
  • Remittances, philanthropy and faith-based financing

7. Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).