SDG Push Insight Report

Rwanda

Rwanda
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Integrated SDG Insights

Rwanda

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment — This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.‍

SDG Trends & Priorities — This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.
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SDG Interlinkages — Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.
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‍Finance & Stimulus — These policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

Rwanda’s pace of growth during the 2023-2025 cycle is in acceleration, projected to be more than twice the forecast for the world and to surpass by 2024 the country’s growth trajectory expected in the absence of the pandemic. Accordingly, Rwanda’s commitments to achieving the SDGs are focused on transforming its economy and modernizing the lives of all Rwandans.​

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This rapid pace of growth would exert a positive impact on reducing poverty at $2.15 a day, though there are still significant challenges to accelerate progress, especially when using the more stringent threshold of $3.65 a day. On the other hand, Rwanda’s economic expansion comes at the expense of the environment: the country’s carbon emissions intensity of GDP (among the lowest in the world) is expected to increase at an annual rate of 15% due to fossil fuel usage, and of 4.7% when also considering land-use change.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

8.5: Full employment and decent work with equal pay​

One priority of the 7 Years Government Programme, the National Strategy for Transformation (NST1) 2017–2024, is to create 1,500,000 (over 214,000 annually) decent and productive jobs for economic development.​​

Rwanda is undertaking a combination of reinforcing investments such as agriculture processing and light manufacturing (target 9.2), tourism (target 8.9), aviation and logistics (target 11.2); empowering youth and women (target 5.4) to create business through entrepreneurship and access to finance; scaling up the number of TVET graduates (target 4.3) with skills relevant to the labour market; and mainstreaming employment planning into all key sectors of the economy and ​strengthen the coordination.​

Rwanda will continue to leverage the existing coordination mechanisms, including National Umushyikirano Council, the National Leadership ​Retreat, Ministerial Cluster meetings among others. ​

9.2: Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization​

One of the priority areas for Rwanda is to promote industrialization and attain a structural shift in its export (target 17.11) base to high-value goods and services with the aim of growing exports.  Promoting both the ‘Made in Rwanda’ brand and priority value chains are at the heart of inclusive and sustainable industrialization. Greening these efforts will also ensure that the likely trade-offs in terms of protecting the environment are addressed. ​​

Investments in regional integration, will ensure that Rwanda continues to drive value addition as a signature solution together with its neighbours within the East African Community and beyond. Value addition will also trigger investments in health and education (for example through light manufacturing).​

Finally, the idea of a diversified economy built upon future industries should not be lost. Therefore the special attention envisaged in Rwanda at 50 of nurturing new industries that are knowledge-based is indeed welcome.​

11.2: Affordable and sustainable transport systems

It is a priority of Rwanda to develop an integrated transport system – pipeline, railway, maritime, air and road – to ensure cost reductions in doing business, transit time and within reach of Rwandans. For instance, it is estimated that transport accounts for 40% of trade, and the commitment of Rwanda is to reduce this considerably. ​

Rwanda intends to strengthen its cooperation with the East African Community, the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa and other regional bodies to further improve connectivity.​

Greening the transport systems (target 13.2) that will protect the environment, in addition to the positive multiplier effects on other SDG targets such as the creation of jobs.​

Finally, working from home is becoming more fashionable. This will ease the pressure on the transport system. The planned investment is also to have more reliable and efficient transport system that is fit for purpose in the changing context.​

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)
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Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Rwanda's gross government debt, expected at 67.1% of GDP in 2023, is 18.8 percentage points (pp) above the low-income developing countries (LIDC) average of 48.3%. The country is expected to collect 23.2% of GDP in revenue this year, 8.3 (pp) more than the LIDC group’s 14.9%. ​Rwanda's public external debt servicing this year is expected to reach 8.4% of revenue compared to 14.1% for the LIDC average. Like the average LIDC country, Rwanda’s credit rating is in the ‘highly speculative’ category. Due to the risk of less concessional financing, as well as Rwanda’s susceptibility to climate-related shocks and adverse market conditions, the latest World Bank and IMF DSA from December 2022 rates the country ‘in moderate risk of debt distress’. ​

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Rwanda is using an Integrated National Financing Framework to address key fiscal and financial constraints and to build a more sustainable financial architecture at the national level. Priority actions include developing a medium-term revenue strategy, consolidating digitalization of tax administration efforts, streamlining incentive-driven tax expenditures around economic arrowheads, leveraging private investments in infrastructure PPP projects through strengthened capital markets, FDI promotion, and the mobilization of diaspora savings via the establishment of a diaspora fund.​

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Rwanda

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

  • Tax and revenue reform​
  • Climate finance​
  • Blended and public-private finance​
  • SDG-aligned business environment and investment​
  • Accessing financial markets and insurance​
  • Remittances, philanthropy and faith-based financing​

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).