SDG Push Insight Report

Zambia

Zambia
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Integrated SDG Insights

Zambia

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment — This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.‍

SDG Trends & Priorities — This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.
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SDG Interlinkages — Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.
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‍Finance & Stimulus — These policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

Zambia’s pace of growth during the 2023-2025 cycle is in acceleration, characterized by being 42% higher, on average, than the global figure, and well above the country’s growth trajectory projected before the pandemic.

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This pace of growth would exert a somewhat positive impact on reducing poverty at $2.15 a day — though there are still significant distributional challenges to accelerate the pace of progress from the high prevailing levels. Hence the country’s commitments to achieving the SDGs should focus on an integrated approach to achieve poverty reduction by promoting inclusive growth, creating opportunities for as many poor people as possible and targeting the ultra-poor. On the other hand, this economic growth cycle comes at the expense of the environment as the country’s carbon emissions intensity of GDP is expected to increase at an annual rate of 12% due to fossil fuel usage.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

3.8: Achieve universal health coverage

Zambia recognizes that beyond health and well-being, universal health coverage also contributes to social inclusion, gender equality, poverty eradication, economic growth and human dignity. While significant measures have been taken by the government to establish the National Health Insurance Scheme, the country’s health system struggles with inadequate access to medicines, health care services and health personnel. This hampers the universal health coverage objective of leaving no one behind.

The country's universal health care system, the National Health Insurance, provides coverage to approximately 2,811,473 persons (around 12.54% of the country’s total population), registered by the National Health Insurance Management Authority.

By increasing government investments in digital health technology and implementation of the 2022-2026 digital health strategy, there is potential to extend health care services to remote areas and, as indicated by synergies, to enhance investments in energy, decent jobs and improved nutrition and in reducing inequalities.

5.4: Value unpaid care and promote shared domestic responsibilities

In Zambia women experience  poverty levels (56.7%) than men (53.8%), and poverty is particularly prevalent among individuals living in female-headed households in both rural and urban areas, disproportionately surpassing their population share (54.4%).​ High poverty among women increases their lack of agency at home, and thus increases their vulnerability to gender-based violence. Women in lowest income quintiles (40.4%) experience violence, compared to 28.8 % of women in the highest wealth quintile.

To address this, it is essential to prioritize policies that focus on overcoming gender gaps, improving female access to human capital, economic opportunities, ownership and control of assets, and increase women’s voice and agency. Zambia's Eighth National Development Plan 2022–2026 emphasizes the need for integrated approaches to promote gender equality and to create greater opportunities, especially for young people.​

Furthermore, a robust social protection programme (targeting women) and leveraging the potential of the digital can empower women by enabling them to succeed in the future of work, to access essential digital services, including those for education and health care and to increase their civic and political engagement. ​

8.5: Full employment and decent work with equal pay

With a national unemployment rate in Zambia of approximately 14.1%, and youth unemployment reaching 47.2% in 2021, it is crucial to give special attention to youth and people with disabilities when addressing the issue of decent work for all.​

Investing in SDG 8 (decent work and economic growth) can help Zambia address current employment challenges by focusing on key priority areas, such as poverty eradication, zero hunger, improved health care and education.​

Progress on Target 8.5 should be supported by policies to reduce energy intensity and to increase its efficiency  to mitigate the negative impact on the share of renewable energy (Target 7.2) and by energy efficiency (Target 7.3).​

11.1: Safe and affordable housing Target

Zambia recognizes the challenges of rapid urbanization and the need for equitable urban development. While significant measures have been taken by the government, further policy focus and investment are required to bridge existing gaps.  

The country’s annual urbanization rate is estimated at 4.1% (similar to sub-Saharan Africa’s annual urbanization growth) in 2020, significantly greater than the world average of 1.8% – with the population expected to double by 2050. This will accelerate growth of the urban population and the demand for adequate basic services, such as decent housing, transport, waste management, water and sanitation.

By promoting sustainable urban and peri-urban development by investing in housing through interventions that focus on safety and accessibility, upgrading informal settlements and connecting housing investments to basic sanitation access, Zambia will build synergies that improve the well-being of the population as a whole and reap the benefits of urbanization.

To implement this effectively, national and subnational actions will be critical to reach those left behind.

16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions

In Zambia approximately 55% of the population ares satisfied with the public services they receive. By focusing on SDG 16 (Peace, justice and strong institutions), and specifically Target 16.6, measures can be implemented to cut across all goals and pillars outlined in the Eighth National Development Plan (2022-2026), where public services are provided.​

This offers Zambia the opportunity to set a higher goal, for example towards the percentage of the population satisfied with public services received. This increase will have a positive multiplier effect on the progress of other SDGs.​

However, it is crucial to ensure that this aim is accompanied by safeguards to prevent the deepening of poverty and of inequalities.​

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)
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Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Zambia's gross government debt, latest assessed at 111% of GDP in 2021, is more than 62 percentage points (pp) higher than the low-income developing countries (LIDC) group average, and the country has been battling a debt crisis since late 2020. The country is expected to collect 22% of GDP in revenue this year – 7.1 pp more than the LIDC group – with natural resources accounting for about 28% of this revenue. Zambia’s external debt servicing this year is expected to be as high as 25% of revenue compared to the LIDC average of 14.1%. The country’s credit rating has been in the ‘default’ category since late 2020. Zambia’s lost access to international capital markets is also reflected in a 10-year bond yield as high as 30% – close to twice as high as the LIDC average and more than 26 pp higher than a 10-Year US Treasury bond. Similarly, according to its latest World Bank and IMF Debt Sustainability Assessment, the country is rated ‘in debt distress’. Zambia reached a debt restructuring deal with official creditors in June, 2023, under the G20's Common Framework.

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Zambia is using an Integrated National Financing Framework to address key fiscal and financial constraints and to build a more sustainable financial architecture at the national level. Priority actions include establishing a Medium-Term Revenue Framework (focused on revenue policy, administration and capacity); improving design and monitoring of tax incentives; enhancing capacity in detecting and curbing illicit financial flows; leveraging ICT to broaden the tax base and to enhance compliance; intensifying debt restructuring efforts and strengthening regulatory and institutional frameworks around debt contraction; undertaking disciplined public borrowing to minimize the crowding-out effect on the private sector; and diversifying bank credit to the private sector, focusing on the priority sectors of manufacturing, tourism and mining.

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Zambia

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

  • Tax and revenue reform
  • Debt for SDGs (SDGs bonds, thematic bonds, diaspora bonds, infrastructure bonds)
  • Climate finance
  • Blended and public-private finance
  • SDG-aligned business environment and investment
  • Accessing financial markets and insurance
  • Remittances, philanthropy and faith-based financing

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).