SDG Push Insight Report

Guinea

Guinea
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Integrated SDG Insights

Guinea

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment — This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.‍

SDG Trends & Priorities — This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.
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SDG Interlinkages — Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.
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‍Finance & Stimulus — These policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

Guinea’s pace of growth during the 2023-2025 cycle is in acceleration, characterized by being 91% higher, on average, than the global figure, and above the country’s growth trajectory projected before the pandemic. Accordingly, Guinea’s commitments to achieving the SDGs are focused on structural transformation of the national economy which will put Guinea on a path of growth that will create wealth and jobs.

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While this growth rate is expected to reduce the incidence of poverty, there are still challenges to accelerate its reduction from relatively high prevailing levels, especially when using stringent poverty thresholds. Moreover, the cycle of accelerated economic growth occurs at the expense of the environment as the country’s carbon emissions intensity of GDP is expected to increase at an annual rate of 5% due to fossil fuel usage — though the emissions intensity would follow a downward trend when also considering land-use change.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

8.5: By 2030, achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all women and men, including for young people and persons with disabilities, and equal pay for work of equal value

Guinea’s efforts are to lay the foundations for the structural transformation of the national economy which will put the country on a path of growth that will create wealth and jobs. Therefore, job creation is a key priority for Guinea.

Guinea’s approach is multisectoral, creating jobs in all sectors from agriculture, manufacturing to tourism and beyond. The strategy is also not to leave anyone behind, and includes actions aimed at creating jobs, especially for young people and women, displaced persons, disaster victims, returned migrants, and also measures that strengthen their employability.

In many countries, a mechanism that regularly tracks the number of jobs being created and the level of earnings is absent. Regular tracking enables a nation to know whether it is indeed creating high-earning jobs and to devise incentives where needed. Guinea could consider establishing such a mechanism that tracks jobs and earnings on a regular basis.

11.2: By 2030, provide access to safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transport systems for all, improving road safety, notably by expanding public transport, with special attention to the needs of those in vulnerable situations, women, children, persons with disabilities and older persons

Guinea’s aspiration is to have a transport infrastructure and services that are reliable and sustainable.. Guinea’s approach is a multimodal integrated approach. The preferred option is to have a combination that involves  transporting of people and goods, especially as regards the infrastructure that connects to agriculture and mining.

The country is also exploring urban transport systems, including a metro project for the capital city, Conakry. This interconnected transport infrastructure will help bring progress across other SDGs for Guinea.

Tracking investment and improvements in transport infrastructure, as well as the experience of citizens, is always a challenge. As the data dividend is one of the enablers identified for SDG acceleration, Guinea may consider purposefully investing in it.

16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions at all levels

Guinea views the provision of transformative public services as a vehicle to achieve structural transformation of the national economy, which will put the country on a path of growth that will create wealth and jobs. It is therefore essential to articulate what these public services look like and track citizens’ experience of their provision.

Local service delivery is a key priority for Guinea, with the objective of improving the efficiency of local authorities in the provision of public services. Guinea has also defined a set of basic public services, including health, education and water. However, in view of the ambition for structural transformation, there is a need to articulate what those transformative services will be.

Measuring and tracking the experience of citizens across the transformative services will be important too. It will enable the government and its partners to celebrate their success and also to take any corrective measures.

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)
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Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Guinea's gross government debt, projected at 30% of GDP in 2023, is 1.6 times lower than the low-income developing countries (LIDC) group of 48.3%. The country is projected to collect 13.2% of GDP in revenue this year – slightly less than the LIDC group of 14.9% – with natural resources accounting for 13.7% of said revenue.

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Guinea's external debt servicing this year is projected to be at 18.9% of revenue compared to 14.1% for the LIDC average. Despite its reliance on mining exports and the upward trajectory of non-concessional borrowing, Guinea has some capacity to cope with shocks. Consequently, the latest World Bank and DSA from January 2023 rated the country as at ‘moderate risk of debt distress’. Guinea is using an Integrated National Financing Framework (INFF) to address key fiscal and financial constraints and to build a more sustainable financial architecture at the national level. Priority actions include improving revenue from mining sector; strengthening reforms on the integrated tax administration system; assessing the potential for broadening the tax base and current incentives, exemptions management, and anti-fraud systems; strengthening the institutional framework for debt management; enhancing the absorptive capacity and efficiency of external borrowing; introducing a debt management software and improving methodological skills on debt sustainability analysis; adopting a standard procedure for validating and managing successful win-win PPP projects, with both internal and external funding in the public investment project pipeline; and mobilizing innovative private investments in support of the green economy.

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Guinea

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

  • Tax and revenue reform
  • Debt for SDGs
  • Climate finance
  • Blended and public-private finance
  • SDG-aligned business environment and investment
  • Accessing financial markets and insurance
  • Remittances, philanthropy and faith-based financing

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).