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Integrated SDG Insights

Nepal

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.

SDG Trends & Priorities This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.

SDG Interlinkages Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.

Finance & StimulusThese policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

Nepal’s economy is in mitigation mode in 2023, but it is expected to accelerate by 2024-2025. This pace of growth is characterized by being 65% higher, on average, than the global figure, and aligned to the country’s growth trajectory forecast before the pandemic. Accordingly, Nepal’s commitments to achieving the SDGs are focused on increasing employment opportunities with high economic growth. 

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While Nepal has made good progress in reducing extreme poverty, there are significant disparities when considering geography and social groups. Poverty is concentrated in Karnali, Sudurpashchim and Madhesh provinces and among Dalits. Moreover, poverty measured by the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) is high: almost 5 million Nepalis are multidimensionally poor. The economic expansion, on the other hand, comes at the expense of the environment as the country’s carbon emissions intensity of GDP is expected to increase at an annual rate of 18% due to fossil fuel usage and of 8% when also considering land-use change.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

8.5: Full employment and decent work with equal pay​

The right to employment is one of the fundamental rights guaranteed by the Constitution of Nepal. Creating jobs and employment opportunities for people leads to increased household incomes and in turn has positive impacts on multiple SDGs. Investments in SDG Target 8.5 can help accelerate poverty reduction (SDG1), reduce malnutrition (SDG2) and increase access to drinking water and sanitation facilities (SDG6). Investing more in employment creation may lead to the limited availability of development finance for renewable energy, and hence may result in slow progress in increasing the share of renewal energy in the global energy mix.

Despite efforts, employment generation for half a million youths entering the job market every year has been a major challenge. There are almost one million unemployed workers in Nepal, of which 69.1 percent are young people aged between 15 and 34 years. The lack of opportunities for decent work in Nepal leads to many youths looking for work to seek opportunities abroad as low skilled migrant workers. More than half of million youths leave the country every year. There are stark gender inequalities in the Nepali labour market. The female labour force participation rate is 26.3%, about half that of men (53.8%), which is also relatively low compared to other developing countries. When in the labour market, women are paid on average, Rs. 0.70 for each rupee earned by men for work of equal value and are more frequently in informal employment - 90.5% against 81.1% for men.

With globalization, automation, digitization, demographic changes, climate change and other environmental changes, the ‘world of work’ is being transformed which has a higher impact on those who are not educated and/or less educated and are not connected to the outside world. To protect the interests of the poor and vulnerable groups of the population, the government has adopted some social security measures, including the Prime Minister’s Employment Programme which guarantees a minimum of 100 days employment or the provision of a subsistence allowance for the people. However, with the changing world of work the government needs to substantively engage and provide training in new areas, primarily focusing on information technology, financial services, among other sectors.

9.1: Develop sustainable, resilient and inclusive infrastructures

Infrastructure is essential for fostering economic growth and creating job opportunities (SDG 8), as well as for improving human capital by ensuring access to health (SDG3) and education (SDG4) opportunities. However, the expansion of infrastructure may lead to increased environmental pollution and risk of loss of biodiversity, negatively impacting SDGs 6 and 15.

Currently, about 93 per cent of the total population have access to electricity with 2,200 MW capacity, which is very low compared to the potential of more than 40000 MW capacity. The total length of blacktopped roads is 12,300km and the road density is just 0.61 km/sqm – very low when compared to other developing countries. Only 54.2% of the rural population have access to all-season roads in Nepal as compared to 86.7% of the rural population in Bangladesh.

The low level of infrastructure also makes the Nepalese economy a high-cost economy and erodes its capacity of producing goods and services at lower cost compared to its comparator countries. Despite these challenges, the infrastructure sector suffers from chronic underspending of the capital expenditure budget. This limits the progress on development goals and prolongs the duration of infrastructure gaps. As a landlocked country, enhanced regional road connectivity and corridors can have a significant positive impact on the Nepalese economy. Infrastructure development in Nepal, however, has caused environmental damage, especially in the hills. Studies have shown that road construction without proper environmental safeguards has destroyed forests and caused landslides.

16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions

With the promulgation of the constitution, the country adopted a federal system of governance with three tiers of government: federal, provincial and local. Apart from the federal government at the centre, there are seven provinces and 753 rural and urban municipalities. Several functions related to service delivery have been devolved to the local level. Strengthening the capacity of state institutions, including the legislature and judicial entities at all three levels, will ensure rule of law and justice, reduce corruption and improve public service delivery. This, in turn, will have positive impacts on multiple development outcomes – such as reducing inequalities and improving service delivery and resource management.  However, the local levels have a huge capacity gap, including the human resources capacity to fulfil these functions.

The government has been implementing the Province and Local Government Support Program to strengthen the capacity of these governments to formulate the necessary laws and policies and to strengthen the capacity of officials to implement the laws, in line with the constitutional spirit.

For the federal system to function effectively, several laws, including on the civil service, police, education, agriculture, among others, at the federal level need to be either formulated or revised to allow province and local governments to function with the level of autonomy provided for in the constitution.

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Nepal's gross government debt, projected at 47.8% of GDP in 2023, is close to the low-income developing countries (LIDC) group figure of 48.3%. The country is projected to collect 21.6% of GDP in revenue this year, nearly 1.5 times the LIDC average of 14.9%.

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Nepal's external debt servicing relative to revenue, at a projected 4.9% this year, is nearly a third of the LIDC group’s 14.1%. According to the latest World Bank and IMF DSA from January 2022, Nepal is at ‘low risk of debt distress’. Nepal's requires roughly US$19 billion per year on average to achieve the SDGs, out of which one third is a financing gap. Nepal is planning to develop an Integrated National Financing Framework (INFF) to address key fiscal and financial constraints and to build a more sustainable financial architecture at the national level. Nepal is graduating from Least Development Country (LDC) status in 2026, and official development assistance, in the form of grants and concessional loans, will decline. Mobilizing domestic finance and international private finance should be a priority for the country. 

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Nepal

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

  • Climate finance
  • Blended and public-private finance for infrastructure development
  • Accessing financial markets and insurance
  • Remittances, philanthropy and faith-based financing

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).