Back to main site

Integrated SDG Insights

Kenya

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.

SDG Trends & Priorities This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.

SDG Interlinkages Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.

Finance & StimulusThese policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

Kenya’s pace of growth during the cycle 2023-2025 is in acceleration, characterized by being 80% higher, on average, than the global rate, though still below the country’s growth trajectory projected before the pandemic. Accordingly, Kenya’s commitments to achieving the SDGs are focused on increasing people’s well-being.

Read More

While this pace of growth is expected to reduce the incidence of poverty at $2.15 and $3.65 a day, there are still significant distributional challenges to accelerate the pace of progress. Moreover, the cycle of accelerated growth occurs at the expense of the environment as the country’s carbon emissions intensity of GDP is projected to increase at an annual rate of 0.5% due to fossil fuel usage — though the emissions intensity would follow a downward trend when also considering land-use change.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

8.5: Full employment and decent work with equal pay

“Our estimates show that if the workers [10 million micro- small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) within the informal sector] were as productive as those in the formal sector, they would be generating Sh6 trillion a year, which is 60 per cent of GDP….” - Kenya Kwanza manifesto. This statement best captures the challenge of decent jobs in Kenya. 

Lack  of decent jobs is slowing down poverty reduction (target 1.1) and is an increasingly important concern for the young population in Kenya. Decent jobs are fundamental to development and achieving  the SDGs.  

A focus on creating decent jobs will trigger investments in sustainable agriculture systems (target 2.4), modern energy (target 7.1), digital public infrastructure (target 9.2) and in other sectors of the economy. This may also trigger new industries, for example in research and innovation.

For Kenya’s economy to create decent jobs, there needs to be a thriving private sector as labour productivity is much higher in the formal than in the informal sector. Skills development is also fundamental to the transition to decent jobs. Other measures that could help create decent jobs in the formal private sector include assisting firms access skills, technology and information, for example through technology transfer programmes, improving the business and investment environment and making it easier for firms to access finance.

11.1: Safe and affordable housing

Kenya is pursuing a Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda 2022-2027, commonly known as BETA. BETA is anchored on five pillars – Agriculture (target 2.4), MSMEs, Housing (target 11.1), Health care (target 3.8) and the Digital and Creative Economy (target 9.1). These are in line with  access for all to adequate, safe and affordable housing and basic services, and also to upgrade slums (target 11.1).

When combined with the fact that this is being implemented in the context of devolved governments, housing and basic services in a decentralized setting will improve significantly. That also means that the definition of basic services will be expanded in order to achieve the aims of BETA to include for instance the public digital infrastructure.

Whereas there are already established mechanisms to track and monitor BETA’s performance, Kenya will consider a Quarterly SDG Scoreboard that informs Quarterly SDG Conversations at key levels of governance. This will improve BETA’s delivery and accelerate the achievement of the other SDGs, while taking care of the trade-offs. 

16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions

The issue of effective, accountable and transparent institutions is about the role of the state in delivering public services to its citizens.  The Government of Kenya views responsive institutions at all levels, including foreign missions (target 16.8), as a critical ingredient to build a globally competitive and prosperous economy, a just and cohesive society and a democratic political system that protects the rights and freedoms of every individual.

Kenya may want to track the public service experience of its citizens – digitization (target 9.1), health (target 3.8), education (target 4.1) -, for example, on a quarterly basis. This could be part of a Quarterly SDG Scoreboard that could inform the Quarterly SDG Conversation.  It is through such a process that any corrective measures can be undertaken at different levels, including at the Cabinet level.

With a Quarterly SDG Scoreboard and Quarterly SDG Conversations, Kenya can establish higher goals in terms of citizens’ satisfaction with public and private services; and expand the basis of what public services should be. With this done at County and National level, it is expected that most of BETA priorities will be delivered.

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Kenya's gross government debt has risen sharply since the onset of the pandemic and is projected at 66.6% of GDP in 2023, which is more than 18 percentage points (pp) above the low-income developing countries’ (LIDC) average of 48.3%. The country is projected to collect 17.6% of GDP in revenue this year, which is 2.7 pp above the LIDC group’s 14.9%. 

Show More

Kenya’s public external debt servicing relative to revenue is projected to reach 15.9% this year, thus slightly above the average LIDC at 14.1%. Since early 2022, the country’s credit rating – as is the LIDC average – is in the ‘highly speculative’ category. Because of rating downgrades and a tightening of international financial markets, Kenya is no longer able to access markets due to prohibitively expensive interest rates. The weak rating is also reflected in the country’s 10-year bond yield which is trading at 15% – close to the LIDC average of 15.7% – and 11.2 pp above a 10-Year US Treasury bond. Of 70 countries reporting 10-year bond yields, Kenya’s is the eighth highest. According to the country’s latest Debt Sustainability Assessment of December 2022, Kenya is considered at ‘high risk’ of debt distress. Kenya's Integrated National Financing Framework seeks to address key fiscal and financial constraints and build a more sustainable financial architecture at the national level. Priority actions include progressively relying on direct taxes to mitigate economic inequality and to ensure intergenerational equality of opportunity, while ensuring high incomes and wealth are taxed to redistribute revenues to socially uplift populations left behind; reducing budget deficits through fiscal consolidation and ensuring debt resources for financing national priorities and SDGs; optimizing incentives to attract private sector impact investments; and leveraging mobile money for enhancing financial inclusion.

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Kenya

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

  • Tax and revenue reform spearheaded through enhancing domestic resource mobilization for renewed social contract project
  • Climate finance implemented through Green and Resilient Debt Platform
  • SDG-aligned business environment and investment that is anchored on Kenya’s SDG Investor Maps
  • Alignment of all sources of development finance, such as remittances, philanthropy and faith-based financing through a Kenya INFF/Development Finance Assistance Strategy

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).