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Integrated SDG Insights

Moldova

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.

SDG Trends & Priorities This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.

SDG Interlinkages Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.

Finance & StimulusThese policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

Moldova’s projected economic growth rate during 2023-2025 is higher than the global figure (about 25% higher, on average), and the development pathway is transitioning from mitigation to acceleration. By 2024, Moldova's development trajectory will surpass the projected growth rate prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent crises.

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With an even higher annual growth of GDP per capita, which reflects the decline in the country’s population, Moldova’s economic expansion is expected to exert a significant impact on reducing poverty at the international threshold of $6.85 a day. Moreover, this pace of economic growth would be less dependent on carbon emissions as the country’s fossil-fuel carbon emissions intensity of GDP is expected to decline at an annual rate of 2.4%, whereas negative emissions from favourable land-use change are expected to continue compensating for the positive fossil emissions intensity of GDP.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

1.3: Implement social protection systems

Moldova is severely affected by the repercussions of Russia's invasion of Ukraine –higher energy prices, economic turmoil and refugees. A nexus approach is required to balance the immediate response to the crises with longer-term development needs. ​

The poverty rate remains relatively high, with a quarter of population below the national poverty line, and inequalities are widespread. The government prioritizes poverty alleviation, specifically addressing energy and food insecurity.​

Appropriate social protection systems and policies are also important for the provision of public care infrastructure and services (5.4), enabling women to more actively participate in the labour market (5.5). Investments in this area are closely linked to advancements in decent employment, including addressing informality in the Moldova context (Targets 8.3, 8.5, 8.6, 10.3). ​

Effective social protection is a driver of progress poverty reduction and food security (1, 2), narrowing inequalities (5, 10) and helping to tackle energy poverty (7.1). Through integrated policy choices, it reinforces health and education outcomes (Goals 3 and 4).  Social protection reform ('RESTART') is envisaged as a driver for inclusive development, reducing urban-rural disparities and human development losses. ​

4.3: Equal access to affordable technical, vocational and higher education

In Moldova, foucs on SDG Target 4.3 aims to ensure equal access to quality technical, vocational and tertiary education as a crucial accelerator for the whole EU accession and SDG agenda. In OECD's Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2018 Moldova lagged OECD averages in reading literacy (424 vs 487), mathematics (421 vs 489) and in science (428 vs 489). Inequalities hold progress back– the reading gap is 102 points (OECD average 89) and socio-economic status explains 17% of the variance in reading performance in Moldova (OECD average 12%). Progress towards this target also improves outcomes in Target 4.4. on Skills formation, digitalization of education and ensuring future proof skills. ​

​This target is an important accelerator for SDG 8, particularly in reducing the skills mismatch and ensuring the future readiness of the workforce (Target 8.2). Achieving Target 4.3. also positively benefits levelling access to the labour market for women/girls, including by enhancing their access to STEM and ICT education (Targets 5.5, 5.b).  ​

Ultimately, equal access to technical education in combination with the above policy choices is an effective pathway to reduce inequalities, empower marginalized groups and promote social inclusion in Moldova (SDG 10).​

7.1, 7.2 and 7.3: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all

Access to affordable and sustainable energy is crucial for Moldova's development and a driver of progress - reducing income poverty, expanding health and education access, driving growth and sustainable industrialization in combination with a transition to a low carbon economy. ​

​Energy security has become a high priority issue for Moldova, recognizing Moldova’s population has universal access to electricity and clean fuel (Target 7.1) and a medium share of renewables (close to 25% in the past decade), especially after the successful introduction of biomass solutions in 2010 (Targets 7.2, 7.3). However, only 20% of Moldova's energy demand is covered by domestic production, with hydro potential is limited by small rivers, transboundary issues and climate change.​

​In response to skyrocketing energy prices, the GoM introduced the Energy Vulnerability Reduction Fund (EVRF) to support the most affected households (advancing through joint investments in targets 1.3, 10.3). Four out of five household were in the highest vulnerability bracket, spending 90% available income on energy. The EVRF helped to reduce poverty in the short-term, but its financial sustainability remains problematic. Investments in energy efficiency (Targets 7.3, 9.2), recalibrating the energy mix (7.2), expanding  renewable energy sources and promoting behavioral change are required to address energy security, which could generate new jobs and income sources. ​

13.1: Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related disasters

Moldova is highly vulnerable to climate hazards, particularly droughts that impact vulnerable populations and exacerbate poverty and food insecurity (SDG 1 and SDG 2). To address this, resilience-building is crucial, as are promoting stable food production (SDG 2) and access to clean water (SDG 6), while also advancing sustainable energy solutions and ecosystem preservation (SDGs 7, 12, 13 and 15), and women’s empowerment (5), including through ensuring women’s participation in decision-making mechanisms (5.5). Resilience building involves effective governance (SDG 16) – anticipatory risk-informed decision-  making and policymaking processes by institutions underpinned by evidence and public participation.​

Given climate change, Target 2.1 holds significant importance for Moldova, aiming to improve food security and nutrition, by emphasizing sustainable consumption and production and by promoting sustainable food systems and waste reduction. By building resilient agricultural practices, Moldova can mitigate the negative impacts of climate change and support climate action. Achieving this target is crucial to reduce food poverty and malnutrition, benefitting both rural and urban areas. Moreover, it contributes to advancements in SDGs 8 and 12, fostering economic growth and sustainable food systems while supporting climate action (SDG 13). ​

Access to affordable and sustainable energy is essential for Moldova's development (7.1) and to address climate change. In combination, a focus on resilience, food security and sustainable energy can accelerate sustainable development and improve social well-being,  aligning with various SDGs to address interconnected challenges.​

16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions

Achieving target 16.6 and 16.7 is crucial for Moldova's deeper integration into the EU. Policies for achieving the SDGs also require strong and inclusive  institutions. Effective institutions are crucial for a nexus approach to balance an immediate response to crises with longer-term development needs. ​

Well-functioning institutions reduce poverty and ensure equitable access to resources (Target 1.4). They improve education quality (Target 4.4), promote gender equality, in particular by ensuring women’s participation in decision-making (Target 5.5), and by reducing and redistributing unpaid care work (Target 5.4), by supporting infrastructure development (Goal 9), and contributing to economic growth (Goal 8). ​

Effective and inclusive institutions have a broad acceleration effect through improving equality of opportunities thus economic inclusion (Targets 10.1, 10.3) and by reducing territorial inequalities (Target 11.2). Institutions are vital for protecting the rights of ethnic minorities and the most vulnerable groups, such as Roma, children and LGBTIQ (Targets 10.3, 1.5). Transparent institutions enhance urban planning and governance, improving citizens' overall quality of life. Strengthening institutions also facilitates industrial modernization and connectivity, agricultural development and closer ties with EU partners, all factors contributing  to the country’s aspiration for European integration. ​

16.7: Ensure responsive, inclusive, participatory and representative decision-making at all levels​

Achieving target 16.6 and 16.7 is crucial for Moldova's deeper integration into the EU. Policies for achieving the SDGs also require strong and inclusive  institutions. Effective institutions are crucial for a nexus approach to balance an immediate response to crises with longer-term development needs. ​

Well-functioning institutions reduce poverty and ensure equitable access to resources (Target 1.4). They improve education quality (Target 4.4), promote gender equality, in particular by ensuring women’s participation in decision-making (Target 5.5), and by reducing and redistributing unpaid care work (Target 5.4), by supporting infrastructure development (Goal 9), and contributing to economic growth (Goal 8). ​

Effective and inclusive institutions have a broad acceleration effect through improving equality of opportunities thus economic inclusion (Targets 10.1, 10.3) and by reducing territorial inequalities (Target 11.2). Institutions are vital for protecting the rights of ethnic minorities and the most vulnerable groups, such as Roma, children and LGBTIQ (Targets 10.3, 1.5). Transparent institutions enhance urban planning and governance, improving citizens' overall quality of life. Strengthening institutions also facilitates industrial modernization and connectivity, agricultural development and closer ties with EU partners, all factors contributing  to the country’s aspiration for European integration. ​

16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions

16.7: Ensure responsive, inclusive, participatory and representative decision-making at all levels​

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Moldova's government debt, projected at 34.5% of GDP in 2023, is significantly below the IMF’s low-income developing countries' (LIDC) average of 48.3%. Revenue as a share of GDP is 32.6% and thus significantly above the LIDC group’s 14.9%.

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Relative to revenue, Moldova’s projected 2023 external debt servicing of 4.5% is nearly 10 percentage points (pp) below the LIDC average of 14.1%. Accordingly, the latest IMF/World Bank DSA analysis rates Moldova’s risk of debt distress as ‘low’.

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Moldova

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

  • Tax reforms for SDGs​
  • SDG budgeting​
  • Blended and public-private finance​
  • SDG-aligned business environment and investment​
  • Remittances​
  • In longer-term (2 to 5 years) potential access to pre-accession funds

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).