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Integrated SDG Insights

Uganda

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.

SDG Trends & Priorities This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.

SDG Interlinkages Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.

Finance & StimulusThese policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

Uganda’s economic growth during the 2023-2025 cycle is in acceleration, characterized by being twice that of the projected world growth rate, and well below the country’s growth trajectory projected before the pandemic. Accordingly, the country’s commitments to achieving the SDGs are focused on increasing people’s well-being.

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This pace of economic growth would exert a positive impact on poverty reduction at $2.15 and $3.65 a day — though there are still significant distributional challenges to accelerate the pace of progress from the high prevailing levels. However, this economic cycle comes at the expense of the environment as the country’s carbon emissions intensity of GDP is expected to increase at an annual rate of 3.3% due to fossil fuel usage.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

8.5: By 2030, achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all women and men, including for young people and persons with disabilities, and equal pay for work of equal value

Unemployment remains higher among youth at 17 percent – with a higher rate among young females (20 percent) than young men (14 percent). Additionally, the youth population (aged 15-24 years) not in education, employment, or training accounted for 41.1% in 2021. This shows that more than half the youth potential (58.1 percent) has not been utilized productively, a situation that undermines the demographic dividend.  

The government is developing a National Employment Strategy 2023-2028 and an action plan for 2023-2025. The strategy aims to increase decent and productive work opportunities through four policy priority pillars, as follows: (i) Strengthening job-rich growth and investment; (ii) strengthening education and training systems to meet labour market needs; (iii) eliminating barriers to employment of vulnerable groups (women, persons with disabilities, youth, refugees, migrants and the long-term unemployed); and (iv) strengthening employment and social protection linkages. 

The Strategy also highlights the seven strategic sectors with the highest potential to generate inclusive growth and employment, as well as a governance, monitoring and evaluation framework to measure progress. 

Investment in SDG 8.5 will help in achieving progress in 55 other SDG target areas, mainly SDG 17 (7 targets); SDG 3, 7 and 9 (5 targets). It  has the potential to negatively impact SDG targets 7.2 and 7.3. This means that such efforts need to be complemented with policies to reduce the energy intensity and to increase its efficiency to mitigate the potential negative impact.

9.2: Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and, by 2030, significantly raise industry’s share of employment and gross domestic product, in line with national circumstances, and double its share in least developed countries

Uganda currently faces a challenge of how to transform its economic activity away from low value-added agricultural production, non-tradeable services and manufacturing activities towards high value globally competitive industry for exports. Related challenges include the high costs of infrastructure, the limited availability of technical and managerial skills and the high cost of credit.

The NDP III (2020/21–2024/25) identified industrialization, governance and the environment as key SDG accelerators.  Of the 20 priority programmes, 3 are exclusively focused on promoting industrialization, notably agro-industrialization, manufacturing and mineral-based industrialization. The government also put it in place the required policy and legal framework, including the National Industrial Policy and Strategy and the African Continental Free Trade Area Implementation Strategy. 

By investing in Target 9.2, Uganda can accelerate progress in 48 other SDG targets, mainly in SDG 6 and 11 (8 targets), SDG 7 (5 targets), SDG 2 (4 targets). The pursuit of industrialization also entails trade-offs. It requires careful consideration of environmental sustainability as industrial activities can have adverse ecological impacts — affecting ecosystems (SDG 15 and SDG 6). Therefore, it is crucial to promote sustainable industrialization for inclusive growth, employment and wealth creation.

16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions at all levels

In the NDP-III the Government of Uganda identified the following deficiencies as key challenges in the governance domain: (i) weak policy, legal and regulatory frameworks for effective governance; (ii) weak business support environment; (iii) low respect for and observance of human rights and fundamental freedoms; (iv) limited access to and affordability of justice; (v) high crime rates; (vi) a weak societal security structure; and (vii) corruption.

The government recognizes these challenges and is working to strengthen the transparency and accountability systems and the institutions to promote good governance. Of the 20 priority programmes in NDP-III, 3 programmes exclusively focus on good governance (governance and security, administration of justice and the legislature). In the NDP-III, the government established an APEX Platform to strengthen the oversight role of the Presidency to improve public policy management and accountability. The government introduced the Parish Development Model to improve public service delivery, especially to vulnerable population groups.

Investment in SDG Target 16.6 will help achieve progress in 72 other SDG targets. Specifically, it will accelerate progress in SDG 14 (9 targets), SDG 6 (8 targets), SDG 17 (7 targets), and SDG 12 (6 targets). Investment in SDG 16.6 has no known trade-offs to other SDGs. 

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

The ‘SDG Push’ is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, the Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and by 2050 across key SDG indicators.

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Incorporating ‘SDG Push’ accelerators into development interventions in Uganda can reduce the number of people living in poverty (on less than $1.90 a day) over time.

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Uganda

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

  • Tax and revenue reform
  • Debt for SDGs
  • Climate finance
  • Blended and public-private finance
  • SDG-aligned business environment and investment
  • Accessing financial markets and insurance
  • Remittances, philanthropy and faith-based financing

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).