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Integrated SDG Insights

Nigeria

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.

SDG Trends & Priorities This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.

SDG Interlinkages Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.

Finance & StimulusThese policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

Nigeria’s economic growth rate in 2023 is in acceleration, but is expected to plateau at 3% by 2024-2025. This pace of growth is characterized by being 4% higher, on average, than that of the world, and above the country’s growth trajectory projected before the pandemic. Accordingly, Nigeria’s commitments to achieving the SDGs are focused on the promise of getting 100 million people out of poverty and ensuring prosperity for Nigerians.

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This pace of growth, however, is not expected to exert a significant effect on lowering the incidence of poverty. This brings to the fore the urgency to address distributional challenges to accelerate poverty reduction from its prevailing levels. Economic expansion, on the other hand, would be increasingly dependent on carbon emissions, as the country’s carbon emissions intensity of GDP is expected to increase at an annual rate of 4% due to fossil fuel usage and of 5.4% when considering land-use change.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

1.2: Reduce poverty by at least 50%​

Nigeria's development ambition to end poverty by 2030 is navigated in the context of sluggish growth, low human capital, labour market weaknesses. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, 4 in 10 Nigerians live below the poverty line, approximately 80 million people. Many Nigerians – especially in the country’s north –  lack education and access to basic infrastructure, which further challenges this ambition. Productive work and expanded job opportunities for women and youth is a key element in an integrated strategy for poverty reduction - just 17 percent of Nigerian workers hold the wage jobs best able to lift people out of poverty. Furthermore, climate and conflict shocks – which disproportionately affect Nigeria’s poor – are multiplying, and their effects have been compounded by COVID-19.  

Nigeria's ambition to end poverty by 2030 builds on integrated policy choices that drive progress across multiple SDGs.  The government’s strategy to lift 100 million people out of poverty is anchored on eight areas: decent jobs and economic growth (target 8.5), macroeconomic stabilization (target 17.13), quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure (target 9.1) industrialization (target 9.2), structural and institutional reforms (target 16.6), as well as redistributive programmes (target 1.3). The latter include programmes aimed at enhancing incomes, job opportunities and wealth creation through vocational skills training (target 4.4), micro-credit and micro-enterprise development (target 8.3) and livelihood diversification in the agricultural sector (target 2.3).​

8.5: Full employment and decent work with equal pay​

SDG 8.5 has a positive multiplier effect on several SDGs and is a central pillar to Nigeria’s strategy for pulling more than 100 million people out of poverty. It is positively associated with priority investments in youth empowerment (Target 4.4) and skills development/ and upskilling (Target 8.2), and an important investment that helps address SDGs that require acceleration, particularly in the reduction of poverty and vulnerability (Targets 1.2, 1.4) , food security (target 2.1) and across several health targets (Goal 3 reduction of hunger and malnutrition) and SDG 3 (reduce maternal mortality, end the AIDS pandemic, tuberculosis, among other diseases.​

To create jobs and reduce poverty, it is essential that the Nigeria increases its growth potential substantially by diversifying the economy. By focusing on SDG target 8.5, diversifying the economy, deepening trade and value chain integration, Nigeria can expand opportunities for all groups in society, with a focus on populations that are most at risk of exclusion, including women and youth.  ​​

Progress on target 8.5 relies on expanding frequency and access to energy in Nigeria. This should be supported with policies that reduce carbon emissions leveraging renewable energy (Target 7.2), coupled with energy efficiency (Target 7.3).  ​

9.2: Promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization​

Nigeria needs more industries, especially manufacturing to promote economic growth and sustainable development to an optimal level. Pursuing SDG target 9.2 can foster inclusive and sustainable industrialization while simultaneously enhancing its sustainable economic growth and employment prospects. Industrialization can also provide critical injection of capital in the agricultural sector.​​

To achieve the level of industrialization required, investment in basic amenities will be required including safe and affordable water and electricity. However, the pursuit of industrialization also entails trade-offs. It requires careful consideration of environmental sustainability as industrial activities can have adverse ecological impacts—affecting ecosystems (SDGs 15 and 2), potable water (SDG 6), life below water (SDG 14) and life on land (SDG 15).  Rapid industrialization could put pressure on energy access (Target 7.2) at the expense of energy sustainability (Targets 7.2 and 7.3). Ensuring inclusivity in this process is crucial to preventing potential social, gender and territorial inequalities (Target 10. 5)   ​

By investing in SDG 9.2 (inclusive and sustainable industrialization), Nigeria can improve on its current employment challenges and focus on key priorities, namely poverty eradication, reducing inequality and improving the business environment and local entrepreneurship. This, complemented with policy interventions that promote modern agriculture, production value chain, leveraging innovation, science and technology and industrial niches for diversification to generate jobs for women and youth. ​

16.6: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions​

The Government of Nigeria recognizes that investments in physical infrastructure and production cannot be sustained without a commensurate reform in governance. In this regard, reforms of public finance management and the budgetary process have been broadly​ progressive.​

Investments and policy choices that strengthen institutions is recognized in Nigeria as a fundamental driver for the eradication of extreme poverty (target 1.1) over the medium term with significantly higher and more inclusive growth (target 8.1) with positive benefits to national  efforts to build resilience to shocks and disasters (target 1.5)​.

By focusing on SDG 16 (Peace, justice and strong institutions), and specifically Target 16.6, Nigeria can increase its ability to achieve sustained, inclusive and high economic growth needed to reduce extreme poverty. Extreme poverty reduction can be enhanced by improving governance, strengthening institutions, the rule of law, public accountability and the fight against corruption. ​

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Nigeria's gross government debt, projected at 38.8% of GDP in 2023, is nearly 10 percentage points (pp) below the low-income developing countries (LIDC) group of 48.3%. The country is expected to collect 8.9% of GDP in revenue this year – 6 pp below the LIDC group’s figure of 14.9% – with natural resources accounting for more than two fifths of said revenue. ​ Nigeria's external debt servicing relative to revenue is expected to reach 6.4% this year, which is less than half the average LIDC with 14.1%. The country’s credit rating is in the ‘non-investment grade highly speculative’ category. The rating is also reflected in the country’s 10-year bond yield, which is trading at 14.2% – close to the LIDC average of 15.7% – and more than 10 pp above a US 10-Year Treasury bond. ​

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With the exchange rate reform and the end of the petrol subsidy, Nigeria’s new government administration implemented two important reforms in June 2023 that could positively affect foreign direct investment, as well as its budget. Yet, targeted measures to temporarily mitigate the rising living costs for low-income households may be crucial to ensure sustainable development. Additionally, reducing inflation and increasing non-oil revenue are critical to further address long-standing macroeconomic imbalances.​ Nigeria is using an Integrated National Financing Framework (INFF) to address key fiscal and financial constraints and build a more sustainable financial architecture at the national level. ​

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Nigeria

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

  • Debt for SDGs​
  • Climate finance​
  • Blended and public-private finance​
  • SDG-aligned business environment and investment​
  • Accessing financial markets and insurance​
  • Remittances, philanthropy and faith-based financing

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).