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Integrated SDG Insights

Kazakhstan

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.

SDG Trends & Priorities This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.

SDG Interlinkages Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.

Finance & StimulusThese policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

Kazakhstan’s economy is having moderate growth in 2023 and is projected to transition to acceleration mode in 2024 before coping again in 2025. This projected pace of growth during 2023-2025 is characterized by being 42% higher, on average, than the global figure, and above the country’s growth trajectory projected before the pandemic. Accordingly, Kazakhstan’s commitments to achieving the SDGs are focused on increasing people’s well-being.

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This pace of GDP growth is expected to contribute to the reduction of poverty at $6.85 a day and to the share of people living under $14 a day (i.e. in poverty and vulnerability-to-poverty). Moreover, the economic expansion would be somewhat less dependent on carbon emissions from fossil fuel usage as the country’s carbon emissions intensity of GDP is expected to decline at an annual rate of 0.7%.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

2.4: Sustainable food production systems

Kazakhstan is a net exporter of food products, especially wheat. However, food production systems put serious stress on ecosystems and natural resources (Targets 12.2, 14, 15).

While generally water stress in Kazakhstan is lower than in some neighbouring Central Asia countries, much of the country's water resources go to agriculture (63%). Climate change will put a serious stress on food production systems through changing water flows. It will require adaptation to new conditions (Targets 13.2, 13.3).

Regional cooperation (Targets 17.10, 17.11) could be a key to increased value added of agricultural products and reduced pressure on natural resources, and to ensure women’s full participation in agricultural practices and climate action (Target 5.5).

4.4: Skills for employment

In the age of rapid economic and social changes, ensuring relevant skills (Target 4.4) for youth is a crucial accelerator for the whole SDG agenda, as it can accelerate economic growth and make it more resilient. Kazakhstan had a high 15.8 expected years of schooling in 2021. However, the quality of education and equal access remain concerns. In the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2018, students in Kazakhstan scored lower than the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development average in reading (387 vs 487), maths (423 vs 489) and science (397 vs 489). An analysis shows the significant isolation of disadvantaged students from high performing students.

Addressing evident differences (Target 10.1) in education (see PISA 2018) the PISA study notes that expanding options for boys and girls will contribute to women’s empowerment (Target 5.5). Sustainable urbanization, including transportation services (Targets 11.1, 11.2), and targeted inclusion policies for disadvantaged groups (Targets 1.3, 10.3) will contribute to improving equality of opportunities.

Building future-proof skills improving employability and reducing skills mismatch are essential for achieving sustainable economic growth (Target 8) and reducing poverty (Target 1). This will promote equal access to the labour market for women/girls and men and the further empowerment of women to participate into the local labour market (Target 5.5) , including by enhancing their access to Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics and ICT education (Targets 5.5, 5.b).

7.2: Renewable energy

Access to affordable and sustainable energy is crucial for Kazakhstan’s development. The renewable energy share in the total final energy consumption hovered under 2% in the past decade. Coal represents some 50% of the total energy supply, followed by natural gas (some 30%) and oil (close to 20%). Energy prices do not take into account long-term marginal costs and environmental externalities. Energy efficiency (Target 7.3) deteriorated from 8.6 MJ/GDP* in 2010 to 5.38 in 2015 and remained at that level since then. An energy transition is required for the sustainable future of Kazakhstan’s economy. 

However, an energy transition entails short-term costs. Energy price rises have a negative impact on the most vulnerable segments of the population (Target 10) and must be accompanied by policies to mitigate this impact (Targets 10, 1.3) for Kazakhstan. 

Renewable and clean energy plays a crucial role in achieving health and gender equality outcomes (Targets 3, esp. 3.9; 5, esp. 5.1., 5.2., 5.4., 5.5, 5.a). Sustainable energy sources contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions (Target 13), promoting renewable energy, and supporting the transition to a low-carbon economy (Target 12). Industrialization (Target 9) will put further demand on ensuring universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services, and there will be possible trade-offs  between the availability of energy and the use of renewables (Target 7.2).

10.4: Policies for greater equality

SDG 10.4 calls for the adoption of policies to progressively achieve greater equality in Kazakhstan. The size of Kazakhstan and the variety of its socio-economic and environmental conditions are driving forces of inequalities, amplified by the varying availability of infrastructure (Target 9).

Achieving SDG 10.4 has synergetic links with various other SDGs, such as SDG 1 (No Poverty), SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being), and SDG 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), as reducing inequality contributes to poverty eradication, improves health outcomes and advances sustainable economic development. SDG 10.4 is also intrinsically linked with greater gender equality (Targets 5, esp. 5.1, 5.4, 5.5, 5.b) and women’s empowerment.

However, pursuing greater equality may require trade-offs in terms of fiscal adjustments and resource allocations (SDG 17).

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Kazakhstan's gross government debt, projected at 25.9% of GDP in 2023, is nearly 43 percentage points (pp) below the emerging market and middle-income economies’ (EMMIE) average of 68.8%. The country is projected to collect 20% of GDP in revenue this year – 6 pp less than the EMMIE group of 26% – with natural resources accounting for more than one-third of revenue.

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Kazakhstan's public external debt servicing relative to revenue, at a projected 5.4% this year, is less than half the EMMIE group’s 12.3%. The country’s credit rating is assessed as ‘lower medium investment grade’ and hence significantly above the EMMIE average of ‘non- investment grade speculative’. However, the country’s 10-year bond yield is trading at 12% – 2.7 pp above the EMMIE average of 9.3%, thus suggesting lower investor confidence than in comparable economies – and 8.2 pp above a 10-Year US Treasury bond.

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Kazakhstan

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

  • Tax and revenue reform
  • Debt for SDGs
  • Climate finance
  • Blended and public-private finance
  • SDG-aligned business environment and investment
  • Accessing financial markets and insurance
  • Remittances, philanthropy and faith-based financing

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).