SDG Push Insight Report

Serbia

Serbia
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Integrated SDG Insights

Serbia

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment — This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.‍

SDG Trends & Priorities — This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.
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SDG Interlinkages — Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.
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‍Finance & Stimulus — These policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Data not available.

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

Serbia’s economic growth rate is projected to be in the 2-4% range during 2023-2025. This pace of growth would be slightly higher than what is forecast for the world economy during this time. Accordingly, Serbia’s commitments to achieving the SDGs are focused on increasing people’s well-being.

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Serbia’s pace of GDP growth is expected to contribute to the reduction of poverty at $6.85 a day and to the share of people living under $14 a day (i.e. in poverty and vulnerability-to-poverty). Moreover, the economic expansion would be somewhat less dependent on carbon emissions from fossil fuel usage as the country’s carbon emissions intensity of GDP is expected to decline at annual rates of 3%-4%.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

4.4: Skills for employment

Investments in human capital is a crucial accelerator for the whole EU and SDG agenda for Serbia. Ensuring relevant skills (4.4) for youth is a key in the age of rapid economic and social changes. In the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2018, Serbia lagged OECD averages in reading literacy (439 vs 487), in mathematics (448 vs 489), and in science (440 vs 489). Investments in secondary education (4.1) and competitive skills (4.3) could help young people to set out on solid future paths, ensuring employment (8.6) and contributing to accelerating economic convergence with the EU (8.1).

Addressing evident differences (10.1) in education (see PISA 2018) by expanding options for boys and girls, including in science, technology, engineering, mathematics (STEM) and in information and communications technology (ICT) skills, will contribute to women’s empowerment (5.5, 5.b). Sustainable urbanization, including transportation services (11.1, 11.2) and targeted inclusion policies for disadvantaged group (1.3, 10.3) will contribute to improving equality of opportunities.

8.3: Promote development-oriented policies

The policies for accelerated, inclusive and sustainable growth of Serbia’s economy (8.3) are fully compatible with both the EU integration agenda and the SDGs and can serve as powerful catalysts for growth and development. These policies are aimed at achieving faster economic growth for convergence with the EU (8.1), and are based on increased agricultural productivity (2.3) and industrial productivity (9.2, 9.3). Policies for sustainable growth also include those aimed at recognizing unpaid care and providing public care infrastructures and services (5.4), enhancing women’s participation in decision-making and women’s empowerment (5.5), including through STEM and ICT education (5.b), and ensuring them equal rights to access and control of resources (5.a).

Digitalization, which lies at the heart of these policies, requires developing quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructures, including ICT (9.1, 9.c). Economic growth policies should resolve trade-offs with the quality of economic growth, namely global resource efficiency (8.4), increased energy efficiency (7.2, 7.3), and ultimately lead to decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation while ensuring climate resilience (13, 14, 15).

12.2: Achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources

The policies for accelerated growth would not be relevant if they were not delivering inclusive and sustainable growth. Target 12.2, focusing on sustainable use of natural resources, lies at the heart of the Green Economy. It is closely linked with sustainable and inclusive agricultural practices (2.3, 2.4, 2.5), energy transition (7.2, 7.3), sustainable infrastructure (9.1, 9.4), an inclusive economy (1.4, 2.3, 4.4, 5.5, 10.3) and women’s empowerment, being associated with women’s participation in decision-making (5.5) and access to and control over natural resources (5.a).

The goal of the green economy is decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation while ensuring climate resilience (13, 14, 15).

Building a green economy requires short term trade-offs with the pressing needs of accelerated growth. It requires providing transitory social protection measures to those affected by the transition (1.3), building skills for the future (4.4) and investments in sustainable infrastructure (9.1, 9.4) using innovative finances (17.3).

16.6 and 16.7: Develop effective, accountable and transparent institutions at all levels and ensure responsive, inclusive, participatory and representative decision-making at all levels

Policies for achieving the SDGs require strong (16.6) and inclusive (16.7) institutions. Not surprisingly, SDG 16 is at the centre of both the SDGs and the EU Accession for Serbia, covered by chapters 23 – The judiciary and fundamental rights, and 24 – Justice, freedom and security. These two chapters are considered to be the backbone of the whole negotiation process. These targets have a broad acceleration effect through improving equality of opportunities and thus economic inclusion (10.1, 10.3) through implementation of specific policies aimed at women’s empowerment and participation in decision-making (5.5), accompanied by policies aimed at reducing and redistributing unpaid care work (5.4), reducing territorial inequalities (11.2) and promotion and protection the human rights of the most vulnerable groups, such as Roma, children and LGBTIQ (10.3, 1.5).

16.7: Ensure responsive, inclusive, participatory and representative decision-making at all levels

15.1: By 2020, ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainableuse of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services.

By prioritizing Target 15.1 in its 2021-2025 National Development Plan, Ecuadorreaffirmed the significance of protecting and preserving terrestrial ecosystems andtheir biodiversity. This includes recognizing that the investment projects intendedto fulfil Target 15.1 will not only contribute to achieving the SDGs 13, 14 and 15, butwill also help restore ecosystems that underpin the availability and comprehensivemanagement of water resources (SDG 6) and promote their sustainable use (Target12.2). Additionally, it will also foster the generation of new energy from renewablesources (Target 7.2).

To this end, Ecuador seeks to strengthen the management of the National Systemof Protected Areas through its 2022-2032 Strategic Plan and the implementationof the National Forest Restoration Plan 2019-2030. These instruments serve as thetechnical, legal and financial foundation for executing local forest restorationprocesses with a landscape vision, with an overall goal of covering 30,000hectares through its projects. Considering that the proportion of national territoryunder conservation or environmental management, as of 2022, stands at 22.1%, itis necessary to mobilize additional financial resources from various sources andestablish robust governance (Target 17.3) to intensify the care of protected areas.This ensures the conservation of natural and cultural resources, genetic flows, theprovision of environmental services for the benefit of the population and thealignment of policies on the ground.

Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Poverty <$1.90 Per Day (Number of People)
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Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Number Of Children)

4. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Serbia's gross government debt, projected at 52.3% of GDP in 2023, is nearly a fourth less than the emerging market and middle-income economies’ (EMMIE) average of 68.8%. The country is expected to collect 41.7% of GDP in revenue this year, thus 1.6 times the average EMMIE country’s figure of 26%.

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Serbia's external debt servicing this year is projected to reach 4.5% of revenue, which is almost a third of the EMMIE group's 12.3%. As with the average EMMIE country, the country’s credit rating is in the ‘non-investment grade speculative’ category, but slightly above the EMMIE average. The country’s 10-year bond yield is trading at 6.3% – 3 percentage points (pp) below the EMMIE average of 9.3%, thus suggesting higher investor confidence than in comparable economies – and 2.5 pp above a 10-Year US Treasury bond.

SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by

Serbia

possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are as follows:

  • Tax and revenue reform
  • Debt for SDGs (Thematic bonds)
  • Climate finance
  • Blended and public-private finance
  • SDG-aligned business environment and investment
  • Accessing insurance
  • Capital market development
  • Remittances, philanthropy and faith-based financing

Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

This report is the result of a global exercise carried out using artificial intelligence to identify SDG priorities based on 10 national government documents, together with SDG progress and SDG interlinkage analysis. The implementation and monitoring of the 2030 Agenda in Argentina should be consulted in the Country Reports and National Voluntary Reports.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).