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Integrated SDG Insights
Turkmenistan

UNDP’s Integrated SDG Insights explore how to achieve the SDGs by 2030. So that no one is left behind.

How To Read This Report

‘SDG Insights’ playbooks transcend development “as usual,” and leverages data innovation, AI and systems analysis to chart credible pathways that help countries meet the 2030 Agenda.

SDG Moment This section provides an overview of a country's economic growth trajectory, with new insights on sustainability and inclusiveness of growth pathways.

SDG Trends & Priorities This section builds from the foundation of national SDG progress and uses machine learning to analyse national development ambition with an SDG lens.

SDG Interlinkages Combined, these insights are mapped against SDG interlinkages to define policy choices the accelerate SDG progress, tailored to national context.

Finance & StimulusThese policy choices are made against fiscal constraints and opportunities for stimulus mapped in this section to ensure choices translate to development impact and leave no one behind.

1. SDG Moment

While economic growth is a key element in achieving the SDGs, many countries are intent on moving beyond growth as a yardstick for progress. In the short run, growth enables the SDGs; but in the long run, the SDGs aim to transform the pattern of growth itself.

GDP Growth Pathways

People

Poverty: Percentage of the population under each threshold (PPP$ a day).

Planet

Carbon Intensity: CO2 emissions intensity of GDP (tCO2 per PPP $1,000).

According to the Presidential program 2022-2028, Turkmenistan’s growth rate is projected at 6.5-6.7%, growth rate for 2022 reached 6.2%. According to the most recent IMF projections (World Economic Outlook April 2023), during 2023-2025 GDP growth in Turkmenistan is projected to be 20% lower that the global average and well below the country’s growth trajectory projected before the pandemic Accordingly, the country’s SDG policy space is slightly restricted, and the focus is on mitigating the effects of the slowdown, especially on the most vulnerable households.

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This economic growth should contribute to the population wellbeing as measured by internationally comparable poverty thresholds. This brings to the fore the urgency to address key distributional challenges. Moreover, the economic growth cycle comes at the expense of the environment, as the country’s carbon emissions intensity of GDP in 2023-2025 is expected to be still high.2  Turkmenistan joined to the Paris Agreement and actively works on its implementation, including on reduction of carbon emissions. The goal of "low-carbon development" of Turkmenistan is to achieve stabilization of the growth of emissions or even start reducing their volume under favorable economic conditions by 2030, which was also noted by the Government of the country at the 26th session of the conference of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which was held in November 2021 in Glasgow.

3. SDG Interlinkages

Maps synergies and trade-offs of national priorities to the most relevant SDG targets to chart policy pathways with most potential to accelerate progress.

2.3 By 2030 double the agricultural productivity and the incomes of small-scale food producers, particularly women, indigenous peoples, family farmers, pastoralists and fishers, including through secure and equal access to land, other productive resources and inputs, knowledge, financial services, markets and opportunities for value addition and non-farm employment

Target 2.3, focusing on food security and agricultural productivity, holds significant importance for Turkmenistan for ensuring food security of the country. Despite significant progress in reducing prevalence of children stunting (from 11.5% in 2016 to 7.1% in 2019 according to MICS-5 and MICS-6), prevalence of anemia among women remain high (around 27%, according to WHO/GHO estimates), reflecting the need to further address the issues of food security (2.2).

Access to safe and nutritious food improves health outcomes and benefits educational achievements. Moreover, it links closely to SDG 8, creating employment and contributing to rural economic growth. Target 2.3 aligns with SDG 12's emphasis on sustainable consumption and production, promoting sustainable food systems and waste reduction. By building resilient agricultural practices (2.4), including guarantee of women’s rights to access and control resources (1.4, 5.a), Turkmenistan can mitigate climate change impacts and support climate action (13), while maintaining viability of ecosystems, especially water ones (6, 14, 15).

Ultimately, ensuring food security fosters social stability, reduces conflicts arising from food scarcity, and promotes effective food governance.


3.4: By 2030, reduce by one third premature mortality from non-communicable diseases through prevention and treatment and promote mental health and well-being

Non-communicable diseases are play important role in health in 8 out of 10 main causes of death in Turkmenistan, top three are Ischemic heart disease, Stroke, and Cirrhosis (according to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019). Mortality rate attributed to cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes or chronic respiratory disease (probability) in Turkmenistan showed fair progress, but acceleration is required to reach target level 19%.

Premature mortality from non-communicable diseases is affected by metabolic factors (high blood pressure, high body mass index), behavioral risks (malnutrition, dietary risks, SDG 2.2), as well as environmental risks (SDGs 14, 15).

Access to quality infrastructure, especially water and sanitation (6.1, 6.2, 11.1), improving economic outcomes (8.1, 8.5, 8.6) and inclusion (10.1, 5.5, 1.5) play important role in reducing these risks. Well functioning health institutions (SDGs 3, 16) play crucial role in prevention of mortality.

Excessive mortality takes a heavy toll on economic growth (8) by reducing labor force and exacerbating inequalities, which requires social protection policies (5, 10)


4.4: By 2030, substantially increase the number of youth and adults who have relevant skills, including technical and vocational skills, for employment, decent jobs and entrepreneurship

In Turkmenistan, SDG target 4.4 aims to ensure technical and vocational skills, for employment, decent jobs and entrepreneurship through equal access to quality technical, vocational, and tertiary education. Turkmenistan shows high 13.2 expected years of schooling in 2021. Quality of education and equal access remain priorities. SDG 4.4 has important interlinkages with other SDGs, especially Goal 8 trough improving employability, reduced skills mismatch, and ensuring future-readiness of the people in the workforce, and ultimately increase social wellbeing.

This will promote equal access to labor market for women/girls and men/boys—gender differences remain evident in particular on female-to-male education and seats held by women in national parliament. This will further empowerment of women to participate into the local labor market including by enhancing their access to STEM and ICT education (5.5, 5.b). Quality technical education will equip individuals with skills aligned with labor market demands, fostering decent work and economic growth (8).

Ultimately, equal access to technical education will reduce inequalities and promote social inclusion (10).

6.1: By 2030, achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all

In Turkmenistan almost everyone (99.9% in 2019 according to MICS-6) is using safely managed drinking water services. Access to safe and affordable drinking water  is closely linked with achievement of health targets (3), both related to communicable diseases and non-communicable diseases. Sustainable water management closely linked with sustainable urbanization (1.4, 11), sustainable agriculture (2), industrialization  (8, 9, 12), and gender equality and women’s empowerment (5, esp. 5.1, 5.2, 5.4, 5.5, 5.a).

However, there are evident trade-offs between SDG targets. Water in Turkmenistan is actively used in agriculture, leading to high levels of water stress (withdrawals absorbed 87% of available freshwater resources in 2021, according to VNR2023). Climate change (13) makes access to safe and affordable drinking water for all a challenging task. Industrialization and especially oil and gas exploration (8, 9) increases the risks from toxic waste.


8.5: By 2030 achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all women and men, including for young people and persons with disabilities, and equal pay for work of equal value

In Turkmenistan context the SDG Target 8.5 aligns with the goal of increasing population wellbeing. By promoting decent work, Turkmenistan can contribute to improvement of life quality by providing individuals with opportunities for sustainable income generation and economic empowerment. By ensuring adequate skill formation (4.4, 4.3), promoting employment opportunities (8.3) with fair wages, job security (8.8), and social protection (10), and addressing low rates of women’s employment, including through STEM and ICT education (5.5, 5.b), Turkmenistan can create a more productive workforce.

Job creation is closely linked with sustainable industrialization (9.2). Despite recent improvements, manufacturing value added as a proportion of GDP capita declining in Turkmenistan (from peak 52.3% in 2012 to 32.5% in 2022, according to UNSTAT data from UNIDO).  

However, the pursuit of economic growth and industrialization also entails tradeoffs. It requires careful consideration of environmental sustainability, as industrial activities can have adverse ecological impacts—affecting ecosystems (15, 2), potable water (6), health of people (3). Rapid industrialization could put pressure on energy access (7.2) at the expense of energy sustainability (7.2, 7.3). Ensuring inclusivity in this process is crucial to prevent potential social, gender, and territorial inequalities (10, 5)


4. Futures Scenarios

SDG Push is a futures scenario based on 48 integrated accelerators in the areas of Governance, Social Protection, Green Economy and Digital Disruption. It uses national data to explore the impact on human development by 2030 and 2050 across key SDG indicators. It does this by using ‘International Futures,’ a systems model designed to explore interactions across development systems.

Malnourished Children Under 5 (Under 5)

Malnourished Population (Number of People)

5. Finance and Stimulus

Many countries are facing reduced fiscal space, high debt levels, rising interest rates and downgrades on credit ratings. Fiscal and financial constraints tend to slow or even reverse SDG progress.

Turkmenistan's government debt, expected at 4.4% of GDP in 2023, is 64.4 percentage points (pp) below the emerging market and middle-income economies (EMMIE) group of 68.8%. Globally, Turkmenistan has one of the lowest revenue-to-GDP ratios expected at 10.3% of GDP in 2023 compared to 26% for the EMMIE group. This ratio seems particularly small because of Turkmenistan's two-tier budget system and the consideration of only the first tier in the revenue-to-GDP ratio. According to Turkmenistan's Statistical Yearbook, in the latest available year 2021 the second tier was three times bigger, which implies the consolidated budget can be expected at about 46.1% in 2023. Turkmenistan generates substantial rents – about 14% of GDP – from natural resources.

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Relative to revenues, Turkmenistan’s expected 2023 external debt servicing of 12.3% is about 2 pp below the EMMIE average of 14.1%. There is a need to speed up the country's public financial management reforms to achieve the consolidation of the state budget and introduce a medium-term fiscal and budgetary framework, all supported by a modern legal framework and financial management information system.

Low-Frequency Indicators

Financial Indicators

Total external debt servicing (% of revenue)

Heading

14.1

Averages
EMMIE
12.3
LIDC
14.1

6. SDG Stimulus

The UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

Along with the SDG budget-tagging exercises, which provide insights on efficiently allocating public funds for a relative increase in public goods and service provision, the UN Secretary General’s SDG Stimulus Plan lays out a blueprint for action within the existing financial architecture. It includes:

  • Providing liquidity to support recovery in the near term
  • Enhance debt relief for vulnerable countries.​
  • Expanding development financing by MDBs
  • Align financial flows with the SDGs and Paris Agreement, according to country-level priorities and needs, for example through the rollout of the UN Integrated National Financing Framework (INFFs).

Given the projected fiscal and financial constraints faced by Turkmenistan possible funding options for the investments derived from the identified interlinkages are:

  • Human capital investments
  • Climate finance
  • Public-private finance and partnerships via operational INFF mechanisms (e.g. engaging the banking sector for lending into SDG priority areas in synergies with government policies and expenditures)
  • SDG Aligned business environment and investment
  • Accessing financial markets and insurance
  • Potentially Remittances and philanthropy

7. Methodology & Data Sources

Click here to view the Methodological Note for the Integrated SDG Insights.

SDG Moment

Methodology
Assesses challenges and opportunities in national growth trajectories with insights on environmental sustainability and inclusiveness.

Data Sources
Future trajectories to 2025 are based on IMF-WEO GDP projections, distributions of per capita income or consumption from the World Bank, and CO2 emissions from the Global Carbon Budget 2022 and EDGAR (JRC and IEA).​

Trends & Priorities

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Interlinkages

Methodology
SDG trends tracks progress from 2015 to date for the 231 indicators. National priorities are analysed using machine learning to reveal the most prominent SDGs referenced in national policy documents.

Data Sources
The exercise globally considered a total of 454 documents published from 2015 to August 2022. (Miola et al., 2019 updated in 2021-2022)​

Finance & Stimulus

Methodology
Provides insight into indicators of fiscal and financial stress with options (INFF) for stimulus and other means to accelerate progress.

Data Sources
Most recent resource data from UNU-WIDER GRD (between 2018 and 2021), debt and revenue from IMF WEO (between 2020 and forecasts for 2023), external debt from IDS (2023), yields from Haver Analytics (8 June 2023), credit ratings from S&P, Moodys and FITCH (2023), and DSA ratings from World Bank/IMF (31 May 2023).